News from Georgia, Ossetia, Abkhazia

Go to: http://ossetia-abkhazia.blogspot.com/ for the latest news from Georgia, Ossetia, and Abkhazia. You will read reports straight from the region, translated by people there who will tell you what is really going on!Galina and Medea

March 2, 2008: Dmitrii Anatolevich Medevedev Elected President of Russia

March 2, 2008: Dmitrii Anatolevich Medevedev was elected President of Russia!

Independence for Kosovo?

The debate over independence for Kosovo is likely to contribute to the return of the Cold War in Europe. Separating Kosovo from Serbia is certain to renew disputes between Russia and the West over issues including missile defense and NATO membership for the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine.

Kosovo is sacred to Serbs, who call it the cradle of their statehood and religion. The province is also special to the Kremlin, for reasons beyond the roots Russia shares with Slavic, Orthodox Christian Serbia.

To many, Kosovo is a symbol of Russia's weakness in the post-Soviet era. Despite its fury over the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia, Moscow recognized a peace deal that put the mostly ethnic Albanian province under the control of the U.N. and the Western alliance.

Putin has built part of his popularity by restoring Russian pride, working to regain global influence and demonstrating increasing assertiveness toward the West.

An independence declaration could come as early as this week, and Moscow says it has developed a secret plan for responding to it. Meanwhile, Russians are warning that Western recognition will set a dangerous precedent, legitimizing independence claims from separatists across Europe: Scots, Basques, Turkish Cypriots, and others . A report on a government-supported English-language Russian satellite TV channel even threw Vermont secessionists into the mix!

More seriously, Moscow has implied that it could hit back by recognizing the independence claims of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: two provinces with Russian support in Georgia, whose pro-Western government plays a key role in the struggle for influence pitting Russia against the U.S. and European Union.

Such a move coulkd mean a war with Georgia, further deterioration of relations with the West, and a boost for various separatists inside Russia. In the short run, its response will probably be limited to steps such as blocking U.N. recognition of Kosovo, while portraying itself as a protector of international law and the United States as a reckless global bully.

Putin seems less interested in Serbia as a potential military ally than as an outpost of Russia's growing European energy empire. Kremlin support on Kosovo has already helped it land deals for a gas pipeline and control of Serbia's state oil company, furthering its efforts to increase Europe's dependence on Russia for energy supplies and distribution.

Kasparov: Checkmate?

Garry Kasparov, Putin critic and former world chess champion will not run in Russia's March 2008 presidential elections.

Kasparov was jailed for five days after a rally in Moscow last month.

After the Russian Parliamentary elections held in December 2007, President Vladimir Putin said that he supported Dimitri Medvedev to become Russia's next president.

Medvedev reciprocated, asking that Putin be his prime minister.

As Prime Minister, Putin would retain substantial power without violating or changing the constitution, which prohibits presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms.

Prime Minister Putin?

Dmitrii Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin’s designated successor, called for Putin to become prime minister after the March 2 election.

The Russian Constitution prohibits Putin for running for a third consecutive term, but Putin clearly wants to retain a powerful role once he steps down.

Medvedev's proposal provides such a role, especially if the constitution were amended to increase the prime minister's powers.

This is well within the realm of possibility as the pro-Putin faction in the newly elected Duma has enough votes to amend the Constitution.

Medvedev's support for Putin's policies and his proposal that he become prime minister caused some to ask whether he would be a genuinely independent president or essentially a figurehead, doing Putin's bidding.

Both Medvedev and Putin worked under St. Petersburg's Mayor Anatolii Sobchak in the early 1990s. After Putin became prime minister in 1999, he summoned Medvedev to Moscow to become deputy chief of staff of the Cabinet. He was appointed to head the board of state natural gas giant Gazprom in 2002 and became full presidential chief of staff in 2003.

Russian Parliamentary Election: Preliminary Results

December 2, 2007: An exit poll showed that President Vladimir Putin's United Russia (Единая Россия: Edinaya Rossiya) party was winning with 61 percent of the vote in today's parliamentary election.

Russia's liberal, pro-Western parties are not expected to obtain the seven percent minimum required for representation in the Duma.

It is likely that pro-Kremlin parties would have enough seats in parliament to change the constitution.

The West's main election monitoring body, the ODIHR, did not monitor the election, claiming visas had not been issued in time, a claim refuted by Russian officials.

Russian Parliamentary Election: December 2nd, 2007

Legislative elections will be held in the Russian Federation on December 2, 2007. All of the 450 seats in the State Duma (Gosudarstvennaya Duma), the lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia will be chosen.

On October 1, 2007, Putin announced he would run in first place on the United Russia (Единая Россия: Edinaya Rossiya) list and that he might consider becoming Prime Minister after the elections.

United Russia is the largest and most popular party in Russia.

Other pro-Kremlin parties einclude the new Fair Russia party led by Sergei Mironov and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, which have also been favorable towards President Putin's policies.

The largest opposition party is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The liberal democratic opposition is to be represented by the free-market Union of Right Forces, the more socially minded Yabloko, and Civilian Power representing right liberal ideology.

Chechnya will hold a constitutional referendum on the same date.

Kasparov Arrested and Sentenced

On November 24, 2007, former world chess champion Garry Kasparov was arrested and sentenced to five days in prison after he helped lead a protest against President Vladimir Putin.

Kasparov is one of President Vladimir Putin's harshest critics. He was charged with organizing a demonstration without permission, chanting anti-government slogans, and resisting arrest, court documents said.

There is growing concern in the West over the state of democracy in Russia. Western critics claim that Putin is restricting freedom. Putin accuses the West of meddling in Russian politics.

Kasparov and dozens of other demonstrators were detained after the rally which drew several thousand people.

Kasparov's coalition includes radicals, democrats and Soviet-era dissidents. It has attracted significant media coverage but generated little public support.

Putin: Demands Of and Threats Against

Marina Litvinenko, widow of Alexander Litvinenko, is seeking a ruling from the European Court of Human Rights that the Russian state was complicit in poisoning the former security agent with radioactive polonium.

Louise Christian, Litvinenko’s lawyer claimed she had obtained expert evidence that the polonium had come from Russia's Avangard plant, a state facility surrounded by tight security.

The former KGB security officer became a Kremlin critic in exile, and was poisoned by polonium slipped to him in a cup of tea. He spent three weeks dying in agony in London.

Britain wants to prosecute another ex-KGB man, Andrei Lugovoi, for the murder. Russia strongly denies state involvement in the killing and refuses to hand over Lugovoi because its constitution bars it from extraditing its own nationals.

Exiled Russian businessman Boris Berezovskii, a friend of Litvinenko and Kremlin opponent whom Russia has tried unsuccessfully to extradite from Britain has stated that he believes British authorities know the source of the polonium.

Berezovskii said Putin had violated the constitution and therefore his ouster was legitimate and forecasts a possible uprising like Ukraine's Orange Revolution between elections in December and March.

He said such an uprising could come after parliamentary elections on December 2 and before presidential polls three months later.

Democratic movements staged the Orange Revolution in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine in 2004, a popular uprising that brought pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko to power.

Berezovskii, who faces a number of charges in Russia, was a key Kremlin insider in the 1990s, but left Russia after coming into conflict with Putin and was granted political asylum in Britain in 2003.

US "Thanksgiving Proposal" to Russia: Missiles, Treaties, and Troops

On the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday, the United States submitted a proposal to Russia for cooperation on missile defense in eastern Europe against a supposed threat from Iran.

The U.S. also submitted a proposal to Russia that would hopefully prevent Russia’s withdrawal from a key European arms control treaty.

Officials on both sides have declined to release copies of the documents. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov are expected to discuss them early next week in advance of Middle Eastern peace talks.

The documents describe U.S. plans to develop a radar system in the Czech Republic and to deploy missile interceptors in Poland, and also address Russia’s plans to suspend participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

The U.S. claims that the missile defense system would counter the threat of Iranian missiles that could be aimed at Europe or U.S. territory. Russia, on the other hand, contends the U.S.-proposed system also could be used against Russian missiles, which would make it a threat to its nuclear deterrence.

A key component of the missile system proposal is a delay in the activation of the U.S. missile interceptors until it can be shown that Iranian ballistic missiles pose a threat to Europe.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the sharing of a Russian-leased early warning radar in Azerbaijan with the United States. The proposal for delaying the activation of the interceptors has apparently been favorably received by Russian negotiators who also insist that the offer include a binding treaty that would detail specific terms for activation. The United States would likely object to such a demand.

The CFE imposes limits on the deployment of tanks, aircraft and heavy conventional weapons across Europe. Negotiators agreed to revise the treaty in 1999, but the United States and other NATO members have not ratified it. The U.S. position is that Russia must fulfill obligations to withdraw forces from Georgia and from Moldova's separatist Trans-Dniester region before the CFE issue can be addressed. Russia insists that there should be no such link.

Putin Decries Western Meddling in Russian Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked opponents and has accused the West of meddling in Russian politics.

Putin's attack on his opponents came as he seeks to secure a high turnout and strong support for the United Russia (Ednaya Rossiya) party.

Many see this as a way for Putin to retain power after the March 2008 presidential election. Putin’s statements appeared to refer to opposition rallies planned for the coming weekend in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

He did not name specific nations or political parties, but offered a general criticism of his liberal, pro-business and Communist opponents, calling to mind the economic and political uncertainty that plagued Russia before and after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as well the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia that led to the installation of pro-Western regimes.

A clear victory for the United Russia party would give Putin a popular mandate and a loyal parliament to limit his succesor's influence and possibly lay the groundwork for his return to the presidency in 2012 or sooner.

This week’s stadium rally was a mixture of a soccer game and a Soviet-style rally.

Many of Putin’s supporters have demanded constitutional changes that would permit him to stay on as president. He has promised to step down as the constitution currently required, but has also indicated he will seek to retain influence and has not eliminated the possibility of presidential bid in 2012.

Waiting in Warsaw

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has claimed that it will not be able to monitor the Russian Parliamentary elections in December 2007 because Russia did not grant visas in time.

Vladimir Churov, Russia's top election official, denied that the visas been refused and said they were waiting in Warsaw at the headquarters of the election monitoring office, the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

All 56 OSCE member countries, including Russia, have agreed to invite observers to monitor their elections. The organization then decides whether to send observers based on scheduling and need.

In a meeting before the OSCE's announcement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed the need for discussions on Russian-backed proposals that would place new restrictions on election observer missions.

OSCE observers described Russia's last parliamentary elections in 2003 as a step backward for democracy, saying the state had used the media and other levers to favor the main Kremlin-backed party.

In another sign of its defiance of the West, Russia’s upper house of parliament has voted to suspend participation in a key European arms control treaty.

President Putin had called for Russia's temporary withdrawal from the treaty amid mounting anger in the Kremlin over U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Putin’s counterproposal called for placing the system in Azerbaijan.

Under the moratorium, Russia will halt inspections and verifications of its military sites by NATO countries and will no longer be obligated to limit the number of conventional weapons deployed west of the Urals.

Russia ratified the updated treaty in 2004, but the U.S. and other NATO members have refused to follow suit, saying Moscow first must fulfill obligations to withdraw forces from Georgia and from Moldova's separatist region of Trans-Dniester.

United Russia's One Name: Putin

On November 13, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that victory for his United Russia party in upcoming parliamentary elections would give him a moral mandate to lead Russia.

Putin said he intends to convert his current popularity into post-presidential clout after the December 2 legislative poll. This is a clear indication that he intends to remain in politics.

United Russia already holds two-thirds of seats in the State Duma and is forecast to score a crushing victory on December 2. The Communist Party is expected to come a distant second, while liberal parties once popular in the 1990s will probably win no seats at all.

Putin, who assumed power in 2000, is barred by the Russian Constitution from seeking a third consecutive term in March 2 presidential elections.

In what analysts say is probably a Kremlin-coordinated campaign, regional politicians and interest groups have multiplied their appeals begging Putin to stay in office.

Putin said United Russia, created almost overnight in July 2001 as a pro-Kremlin vehicle, was the best party available.

Under the Russian rules of proportional representation, each of the 11 parties contesting the December 2 election presents a list of candidates. The number of deputies from this list that gets seats in parliament depends on the party's share of the total vote.

Parties usually present a list with the leader and two more well-known names, followed by a list of candidates from specific regions. United Russia's federal list has only one name: Putin.

Since the rest of the vote would be divided up into smaller parties -- many of them failing to cross the minimum seven-percent barrier -- such a result would translate into an overwhelming majority of seats in the 450-member State Duma.

The lavishly funded United Russia is the only one of the 11 parties refusing to take part in television debates as part of the election run-up.

Black Sea Oil Spill: Ukraine's Yanukovich Intervenes for Environmentalists

On November 11, 2007, the Volgoneft-132, a small Russian tanker, broke up and spilled between 1,300 and 2,000 tons of oil.

The result is that Russia's Black Sea coast could face an ecological catastrophe. Three seamen were drowned.

A search was under way for five others missing, though hopes of finding them alive were dwindling.

The spilled fuel oil coated birds in a thick black sludge along a vast expanse of coastline in the northern mouth of the Black Sea, near Russia's border with Ukraine.

Sunday’s storm sank the tanker and at least four freighters while crippling other vessels in the narrow Kerch Strait between the Black Sea and Azov Sea.

On Monday, rescuers found the bodies of three of the sailors missing since the storm. Helicopters and rescue vessels continued to search for the five seaman still missing, but with a new storm on its way later in the week, officials said hopes of finding them alive were dwindling.

Environmentalists, backed by Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, said the incident raised questions about safety standards for shipping in the region. This incident has the potential to exacerbate Russian-Ukrainian relations, which often become difficult as winter approaches.

Russian officials said the captains of several vessels had put to sea despite storm warnings. The tanker that was the source of the spill was built in the 1970s, and was not designed for heavy seas. At Novorossiisk, Russia's No. 2 port for exports of oil and oil products, officials had ordered tankers not to dock because a new storm was on its way later in the week.

Suitcase Nukes?

Many government experts and intelligence officials say the threat of a miniature nuclear weapon, often referred to as a “suitcase nuke” gets much more attention than it deserves.

Counterproliferation authorities do not completely rule out the possibility that these portable devices once existed. But they are not convinced the threat is still there.

The idea of portable nuclear devices is not new.

During the 1960s, American intelligence agencies received reports from defectors that Soviet military intelligence officers were carrying portable nuclear devices in suitcases.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the U.S. made the first ones, known as the Special Atomic Demolition Munition. It was a "backpack nuke" that could be used to blow up dams, tunnels or bridges. While one person could lug it on his back, it had to be placed by a two-man team.

Some believe that the Soviets constructed similar devices.

General Aleksandr Lebed, who was also the Russian national security chief, said the separatist government in Chechnya had portable nuclear devices, which led him to create a commission to research the capabilities of the Chechen arsenal.

Even more details emerged in the summer of 1998, when former Russian military intelligence officer Stanislav Lunev — a defector now in the U.S. witness protection program — claimed that Russian agents were hiding suitcase nukes around the U.S. for use in a possible future conflict.

In a 2004 interview with the Russian Federal News Service, Colonel-General Viktor Yesin, the former head of the Russian strategic rocket troops, said he believed that Lebed may have been misled by mock-ups of special mines used during training.

Yesin believed that a true suitcase nuke would be too expensive for most countries to produce and would not last more than several months because the nuclear core would decompose quickly.

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, President Bush asked Russian President Vladamir Putin whether he could account for all of Russia's nuclear material. Choosing his words carefully, Tenet said, Putin replied that he could only account for everything under his watch, leaving a void before 2000.

Oil: Compulsion and Defiance

It is widely recognized that China and India have the potential to develop into economic superpowers in the 21st century. A key component of their growth is oil, which both nations are compelled to import.

This compulsion is not without its geopolitical costs, especially with oil prices at record highs. Iran and Venezuela, for example, can continue to enjoy more protection from outside political pressure as their oil revenues increase and non-oil producing nations find it necessary to come to terms with them.

In Russia, the lower house of Parliament voted unanimously in early November to suspend the country's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. This is yet another of Putin’s shows of defiance to the west. The higher demand for oil will lead to increased reliance by consuming countries like the U.S. and European allies on imports of oil and gas from the Middle East and Russia.

Day of Remembrance

On October 30, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid his respects to millions of people killed under Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin and called for the country to unite to prevent a repeat of its tragic past.

Putin marked Russia's annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin's purges with a visit to Butovo, a military training ground near Moscow where tens of thousands of people were executed by firing squads.

The victims included priests and royalists but also huge numbers of people who were simply caught up in an indiscriminate spiral of killing.

This year Russia marks the 70th anniversary of the bloodiest period of the purges. Putin attended a memorial service with Patriarch Alexiy II, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, after passing a field of mass graves.

It is estimated that between 20 million and 40 million died during Stalin's rule, tearing families apart and creating a climate of fear that haunted the Soviet Union.

Dozens of mainly older Russians laid flowers at a stone memorial outside the headquarters of the former KGB (now known as the Federal Security Service) to remember Stalin's victims. Stalin, who succeeded Vladimir Lenin, started a series of purges in the 1930s that became known as the Great Terror.

The NKVD security service, the predecessor to the KGB, killed hundreds of thousands of people on trumped up charges. Butovo was just one of hundreds of killing grounds. More than 20,000 people are known to have been executed there between August 1937 and October 1938 alone, though local priests say the figure could be as high as 60,000.

Is America Using Iran In A Dangerous Game With Russia?

On October 25, 2007, the Bush administration announced sweeping new sanctions against Iran. These are the harshest since the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in 1979 as part of the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini. America claims that Tehran supports terrorism in the Middle East, exports missiles and is engaging in a nuclear build up.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, joined at a State Department news conference by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, said the moves against Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, an element of its defense ministry and three of its largest banks are designed to punish Tehran for weapons proliferation and alleged support of terrorist organizations in Iraq and the Middle East.

The sanctions will cut off more than 20 Iranian entities, including individuals and companies owned or controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), from the American financial system and will likely have ripple effects throughout the international banking community.

State-owned banks Bank Melli, Bank Mellat and Bank Saderat were named supporters of global terrorist groups for their activities in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East.

Iran's Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics were designated proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology.

The IRGC is the largest component of Iran's military and has influence in business and other spheres. The defense ministry entity is the parent organization for Iran's aerospace and ballistic missile operations.

The Revolutionary Guards organization, formed to safeguard Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, has pushed well beyond its military roots, and now owns car factories and construction firms and operates newspaper groups and oil fields.

Current and former members now hold a growing role across the country's government and economy, sometimes openly and other times in shadows.

The guards have gained a particularly big role in the country's oil and gas industry in recent years, as the national oil company has signed several contracts with a guards-operated construction company. Some have been announced publicly, including a $2 billion deal in 2006 to develop part of the important Pars gas field.

Now numbering about 125,000 members, they report directly to the supreme leader and officially handle internal security. The small Quds Force wing is thought to operate overseas, having helped to create the militant Hezbollah group in 1982 in Lebanon and to arm Bosnian Muslims during the Balkan wars.

The administration accuses the Quds Force of sending fighters and deadly roadside bombs, mortars and rockets to kill American troops in Iraq in recent years — allegations that Iran denies.

These sanctions come in the wake of a strong show of support of Iran by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia and the US are at odds over a system to defend against Iranian missile attacks. The US wants the system based in Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia wants it in Azerbaijan, and does not appear to be as convinced as the US as to why it is needed. Putin has also encouraged oil producing nations such as Iran to bolster their militaries against possible US aggression.

Putin Denies Iranian Missile Threat

On October 23, 2007, President Bush announced a missile defense system in based in Europe, but supervised by the United States, is urgently needed to counter an emerging threat of attack by Iran.

Bush's latest warning about Iran's nuclear ambitions came as part of a broad defense of his security policies at the National Defense University and not long after Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a news conference in the Czech Republic that the administration might delay activating the proposed missile defense sites until it is able to quantify the risk posed by Iranian missiles.

Bush's warning about Iran was contradicted by Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov during a visit to Tokyo. Lavrov supposedly told Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura that North Korea poses a threat, but that Iran does not.

Bush spoke somewhat positively of President Vladimir Putin's offer of facilities for this purpose in Azerbaijan and southern Russia. The idea would be to replace the U.S. plans for missiles based in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic.

The proposal has already been presented to the Russians, who strongly oppose having U.S. missile defense bases in Europe but have expressed interest in the proposal Gates mentioned Tuesday, which Gates said has yet to be worked out in detail. At a news conference after meeting Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, Gates said in Prague that the United States would proceed with current plans to build the sites in Europe but possibly wait before putting them in working order. The United States wants to build a missile interceptor base in Poland and a radar site in the Czech Republic, but details have yet to be negotiated.

It is not known what role, if any, Alexandria, VA-based Rannoch would play in the deployment of this system. Some question Rannoch’s overall competence in this area, as the majority of their senior management team have backgrounds in commercial software systems purchased from other companies. Rannoch’s management team has been very active in the Czech Republic, and this activity may be connected to the deployment of this system.

A good deal of the disagreement between Washington and Moscow over missile defense in Europe has centered on the question of when Iran's missile program would reach the stage where it could threaten all of Europe and the United States. The Russians say that is a far-distant prospect; the Americans say it is coming soon.

Gates described a related proposal to the Russians that might mean permitting a Russian presence at U.S. missile defense bases, including at the Polish and Czech sites. He said this was presented to the Russians in the interest of making as transparent as possible to Moscow how the missile defense sites operate.

The Pentagon wants to install 10 interceptor rockets in Poland which, when linked to a proposed tracking radar in the Czech Republic and to other elements of the existing U.S. missile defense system based in the United States, could defend all of Europe against a long-range missile fired from the Middle East.

Russia Will Defend Its Oil

Russian President Vladimir Putin, responding to questions on a TV broadcast on October 18, 2007, continued his recent criticism of the United States.

Putin suggested that the U.S. military campaign in Iraq may have been attempt to seize its oil reserves. He said that resource rich countries such as Russia needed to have strong militaries to defend themselves against those who might try to steal their resources.

He also called for the U.S. to announce an exact date for the departure of troops from Iraq.

With respect to his own future, he said that Russia will have a different president next year. This would appear to lay to rest any notions that he would seek both a third term and constitutional crisis, but it was not clear what role he would play in Russia’s new government.