Progress at Bushehr

December 17, 2007: Russia has made its first shipment of nuclear fuel to the Iranian nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr.

Iran contends its plant is strictly for civilian purposes, but the project concerns the United States and contend that the plant could be used to build nuclear weapons.

The American position was weakened earlier this month with the release of a new U.S. intelligence report that concluded Iran had halted its nuclear weapons development program in 2003 and had not resumed it through at least the middle of this year.

Even though Russia has opposed the imposition of further sanctions on Iran, it also repeatedly has urged Tehran to cooperate with efforts to resolve concerns over the nuclear program.

Last week, officials at Atomstroyexport, the Russian contractor for Bushehr, raised the prospect of creating a Russian-Iranian joint venture that would provide greater security at the facility. This could be an indication that Russia wants to ensure that enriched uranium at the plant is not stolen or diverted. Depleted fuel rods also could be reprocessed into plutonium.

Iran: Accusers, Supporters, and Leaders

U.S. officials have accused Iran of many things: Developing nuclear weapons. Sponsoring terrorism. Killing Americans in Iraq. Planning Israel's destruction.

Does the U.S. have evidence?

In the buildup to the Iraq war, the Bush administration made allegations against Saddam Hussein. Polls showed that Americans believed these allegations, which were later shown to be wrong.

The United States and Iran have been enemies since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a time of mullahs returning from exile, demonstrating students, and American hostages.

For almost two decades, Iran pursued a secret nuclear program.

Iran claims its program is for civilian power generation only. The U.S. says it is for a bomb.

Many other countries agree that Iran's actions to date, such as its enrichment of uranium and its continued secrecy suggest it has seeks to develop nuclear weapons. Other nations, including Russia and China, urge Iran to be more open, and call for compromises on all sides.

A new national intelligence estimate, originally due last spring, was delayed by the need to evaluate new information, the U.S. national intelligence director, Mike McConnell, said recently. But most analysts say that new information is mostly just Iran's political developments and recent U.N. findings on enrichment, already public.

Very little is known about Iran would do with a bomb, if it had one.

Most countries develop nuclear weapons as a way to gain regional power and influence, as was the case with India and Pakistan.

The real power in Iran is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's top religious and political authority whose views remain shrouded in mystery. He has backed Ahmadinejad and is deeply conservative.

There are numerous signs Iranians dislike their current government. Iran's young, well‑educated population objects to many aspects of the current authoritarian regime. The country has an inefficient economy, exacerbated by Ahmadinejad's blunders.

Khamenei lacks the stern, spellbinding charisma that bound the first revolutionary leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, so strongly to his people.

Russia and China -v- US and EU Over Iranian Nuclear Program

On November 23, 2007 Iran stated Western nations’ efforts to impose seeking harsher U.N. sanctions against it could halt its steps to clarify nuclear activity to U.N. inspectors.

Earlier in the week, U.N. nuclear watchdog stated that believed that Iran was making good progress towards resolving key objectives by the end of the year, only to be told not enough had been done to secure the trust of the West.

The Western accusation against Iran it is secretly trying to build atomic bombs. Iran's clarifications on centrifuge research were consistent with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) intelligence.

Iran also continued to defy demands by the United Nations Security Council to suspend enrichment work.

The so-called "EU-3 Powers" of Britain, France and Germany told IAEA governors that further delays were not acceptable.

They and the United States said Iran had failed to show full disclosure and suspend enrichment gain a reprieve from further sanctions. Russia and China did not join the Western camp in supporting further Security Council action. Russia, moreover, has referred to Iran’s cooperation so far as having been constructive.

The two key issues involve traces of highly enriched -- or bomb-grade -- uranium that inspectors found at research sites, and intelligence on links between uranium processing, explosives tests, and an apparent design for a missile warhead.

Fission at the UN?

Iran has answered questions about its past nuclear activities posed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but the IAEA does not believe that Iran is being completely truthful.

The IAEA’s report warns that knowledge about Iran's current nuclear program is decreasing because Iran is currently providing less information than it had previously.

The report is expected to play a crucial role in determining whether the United Nations Security Council will impose more sanctions on Iran.

International powers may, once again, find themselves at an impasse.

The United States is likely to argue that the report validates concerns that Iran is covertly developing a nuclear weapon.

Russia, China and others will almost certainly contend that as long as Iran continues to respond to questions, tougher sanctions are premature.

The Bush administration agreed with other world powers in late September 2007 to hold off on new sanctions while IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei sought Iran's cooperation in clearing up the history of its nuclear program.

Suitcase Nukes?

Many government experts and intelligence officials say the threat of a miniature nuclear weapon, often referred to as a “suitcase nuke” gets much more attention than it deserves.

Counterproliferation authorities do not completely rule out the possibility that these portable devices once existed. But they are not convinced the threat is still there.

The idea of portable nuclear devices is not new.

During the 1960s, American intelligence agencies received reports from defectors that Soviet military intelligence officers were carrying portable nuclear devices in suitcases.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the U.S. made the first ones, known as the Special Atomic Demolition Munition. It was a "backpack nuke" that could be used to blow up dams, tunnels or bridges. While one person could lug it on his back, it had to be placed by a two-man team.

Some believe that the Soviets constructed similar devices.

General Aleksandr Lebed, who was also the Russian national security chief, said the separatist government in Chechnya had portable nuclear devices, which led him to create a commission to research the capabilities of the Chechen arsenal.

Even more details emerged in the summer of 1998, when former Russian military intelligence officer Stanislav Lunev — a defector now in the U.S. witness protection program — claimed that Russian agents were hiding suitcase nukes around the U.S. for use in a possible future conflict.

In a 2004 interview with the Russian Federal News Service, Colonel-General Viktor Yesin, the former head of the Russian strategic rocket troops, said he believed that Lebed may have been misled by mock-ups of special mines used during training.

Yesin believed that a true suitcase nuke would be too expensive for most countries to produce and would not last more than several months because the nuclear core would decompose quickly.

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, President Bush asked Russian President Vladamir Putin whether he could account for all of Russia's nuclear material. Choosing his words carefully, Tenet said, Putin replied that he could only account for everything under his watch, leaving a void before 2000.

Another Move In The Iranian "Nuclear Game"

On November 1, 2007 the United States claimed that both Russia and China had been blocking tough U.N. sanctions against Iran.

China may not have sided with Russia, but it has certainly decided to participate in the Iranian "nuclear game" whose outcome will influence the remainder of the 21st century.

Nicholas Burns, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, said China and Russia had been stalling a new United Nations Security Council resolution since late March.

The five permanent powers on the Security Council (United States, Russia, China, France, Great Britain) plus Germany will meet in London on Friday to weigh the scope for more sanctions.

Russia has argued that further sanctions could push Iran into a corner.

China urged a diplomatic solution to the issue, recognizing it had become difficult.

Iran has defied three Council resolutions, two with modest sanctions attached, since last year demanding it stop enriching uranium. Iran says it wants nuclear-generated electricity, but Western powers suspect a disguised bid to build atom bombs.

Tension over Iran's nuclear activities has helped catapult oil prices to record highs of over $90 a barrels in recent days. Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suggested new bilateral U.S. sanctions would mainly hurt European Union countries doing business with Iran, which has vast oil and gas reserves.

Is America Using Iran In A Dangerous Game With Russia?

On October 25, 2007, the Bush administration announced sweeping new sanctions against Iran. These are the harshest since the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in 1979 as part of the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini. America claims that Tehran supports terrorism in the Middle East, exports missiles and is engaging in a nuclear build up.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, joined at a State Department news conference by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, said the moves against Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, an element of its defense ministry and three of its largest banks are designed to punish Tehran for weapons proliferation and alleged support of terrorist organizations in Iraq and the Middle East.

The sanctions will cut off more than 20 Iranian entities, including individuals and companies owned or controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), from the American financial system and will likely have ripple effects throughout the international banking community.

State-owned banks Bank Melli, Bank Mellat and Bank Saderat were named supporters of global terrorist groups for their activities in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East.

Iran's Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics were designated proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology.

The IRGC is the largest component of Iran's military and has influence in business and other spheres. The defense ministry entity is the parent organization for Iran's aerospace and ballistic missile operations.

The Revolutionary Guards organization, formed to safeguard Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, has pushed well beyond its military roots, and now owns car factories and construction firms and operates newspaper groups and oil fields.

Current and former members now hold a growing role across the country's government and economy, sometimes openly and other times in shadows.

The guards have gained a particularly big role in the country's oil and gas industry in recent years, as the national oil company has signed several contracts with a guards-operated construction company. Some have been announced publicly, including a $2 billion deal in 2006 to develop part of the important Pars gas field.

Now numbering about 125,000 members, they report directly to the supreme leader and officially handle internal security. The small Quds Force wing is thought to operate overseas, having helped to create the militant Hezbollah group in 1982 in Lebanon and to arm Bosnian Muslims during the Balkan wars.

The administration accuses the Quds Force of sending fighters and deadly roadside bombs, mortars and rockets to kill American troops in Iraq in recent years — allegations that Iran denies.

These sanctions come in the wake of a strong show of support of Iran by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia and the US are at odds over a system to defend against Iranian missile attacks. The US wants the system based in Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia wants it in Azerbaijan, and does not appear to be as convinced as the US as to why it is needed. Putin has also encouraged oil producing nations such as Iran to bolster their militaries against possible US aggression.

Warnings from the Caspian Summit

On October 16, 2007, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and implicitly warned the U.S. not to use a former Soviet republic to stage an attack on Iran.

At a summit of the five nations that border the inland Caspian Sea (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan), Putin said none of the nations' territory should be used by any outside countries for use of military force against any nation in the region. It was am obvious reference to long-standing rumors that the U.S. has planned to use Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic, as a staging ground for any possible military action against Iran.

Putin, whose trip to Tehran is the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, also warned that energy pipeline projects crossing the Caspian could only be implemented if all five nations that border the Caspian support them. The legal status of the Caspian — believed to contain the world's third-largest energy reserves — has been uncertain since the 1991 Soviet collapse, leading to tension and conflicting claims to seabed oil deposits. Iran, which shared the Caspian's resources with the Soviet Union, insists that each coastal nation receive an equal portion of the seabed. Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan want the division based on the length of each nation's shoreline, giving Iran a smaller share.

Putin's visit took place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran's nuclear program. Putin's trip was thrown into doubt when the Kremlin said Sunday that he had been informed by Russian intelligence services that suicide attackers might try to kill him in Tehran, but he ignored the warning.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini dismissed reports about the purported assassination plot as disinformation spread by adversaries hoping to damage the good relations between Russia and Iran.

Putin has warned the U.S. and other nations against trying to coerce Iran into reining in its nuclear program and insists peaceful dialogue is the only way to deal with Iranian defiance of a U.N. Security Council demand that it suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran's rejection of the council's demand and its previous clandestine atomic work has fed suspicions in the U.S. and other countries that Tehran is working to enrich uranium to a purity usable in nuclear weapons. Iran insists it is only wants less enriched uranium to fuel nuclear reactors that would generate electricity. Putin's visit to Tehran is being closely watched for any possible shifts in Russia's carefully hedged stance in the nuclear standoff.

Even though Russia has shielded Tehran from a U.S. push for a third round of U.N. sanctions, Iran has voiced annoyance about Moscow's delays in building a nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr under a $1 billion contract.

Moscow also has ignored Iranian demands to ship fuel for the plant, saying it would be delivered only six months before the Bushehr plant goes on line. The launch date has been delayed indefinitely amid the payment dispute. Any sign by Putin that Russia could quickly complete the power plant would embolden Iran and further cloud Russia's relations with the West.