Opposition to Georgian Election Results

TBILISI, Georgia, January 13, 2007: Tens of thousands of opposition protesters in rallied against presidential poll winner Mikhail Saakashvili on Sunday alleging vote fraud.

Opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze called for a second round of elections. Gachechiladze came second in the January 5 vote to the incumbent Saakashvili, who was the outright winner in the first round with 53.47 percent, according to final results issued by the Central Elections Commission earlier on Sunday.

The opposition has accused the authorities of rigging the vote in favour of Saakashvili, a pro-Western reformer who led a popular revolt in 2003 but whose popularity has waned because of continued high levels of poverty.

Salome Zurabishvili, another opposition leader and a former foreign minister, called on foreign leaders to boycott Saakashvili's inauguration ceremony. Opposition leaders billed the rally as a show of force against Saakashvili, who was first elected with a sweeping majority in January 2004 in this former Soviet republic.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the main election monitoring group, said that despite some irregularities, the election had largely met democratic standards. The Central Election Commission said the courts were considering a number of complaints regarding the election, and that so far more than 33,000 votes had been declared invalid due to irregularities.

The presidential election was called a year early in response to violent unrest in November, which dented Saakashvili's image as a democratic reformer in this strategic corner of the former Soviet Union. US-backed Saakashvili now has a new five-year mandate to pursue radical reforms to transform Georgia's economy. He is also wants Georgia to join NATO and the European Union.

A flamboyant and multilingual politician, Saakashvili has won plaudits for pulling Georgia out of years of economic chaos and political instability. But, while the opposition backs his pro-Western course, it accuses him of authoritarian tendencies and forgetting impoverished Georgians who have been left behind in free-market reforms. Addressing those complaints, Saakashvili told reporters on Saturday that he aims to eliminate poverty. He added that he wanted to improve relations with neighboring Russia.

Angered by Tbilisi's overtures to the West and its NATO ambitions, Moscow has imposed economic sanctions on Georgia. It also supports armed rebels controlling the Georgian separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

RIP: Benazir Bhutto

It is unfortunate that the 2007 holidays will be remembered for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Memory Eternal.

Kasparov: Checkmate?

Garry Kasparov, Putin critic and former world chess champion will not run in Russia's March 2008 presidential elections.

Kasparov was jailed for five days after a rally in Moscow last month.

After the Russian Parliamentary elections held in December 2007, President Vladimir Putin said that he supported Dimitri Medvedev to become Russia's next president.

Medvedev reciprocated, asking that Putin be his prime minister.

As Prime Minister, Putin would retain substantial power without violating or changing the constitution, which prohibits presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms.

Russian Parliamentary Election: Preliminary Results

December 2, 2007: An exit poll showed that President Vladimir Putin's United Russia (Единая Россия: Edinaya Rossiya) party was winning with 61 percent of the vote in today's parliamentary election.

Russia's liberal, pro-Western parties are not expected to obtain the seven percent minimum required for representation in the Duma.

It is likely that pro-Kremlin parties would have enough seats in parliament to change the constitution.

The West's main election monitoring body, the ODIHR, did not monitor the election, claiming visas had not been issued in time, a claim refuted by Russian officials.

Russian Parliamentary Election: December 2nd, 2007

Legislative elections will be held in the Russian Federation on December 2, 2007. All of the 450 seats in the State Duma (Gosudarstvennaya Duma), the lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia will be chosen.

On October 1, 2007, Putin announced he would run in first place on the United Russia (Единая Россия: Edinaya Rossiya) list and that he might consider becoming Prime Minister after the elections.

United Russia is the largest and most popular party in Russia.

Other pro-Kremlin parties einclude the new Fair Russia party led by Sergei Mironov and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, which have also been favorable towards President Putin's policies.

The largest opposition party is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The liberal democratic opposition is to be represented by the free-market Union of Right Forces, the more socially minded Yabloko, and Civilian Power representing right liberal ideology.

Chechnya will hold a constitutional referendum on the same date.

Kasparov Arrested and Sentenced

On November 24, 2007, former world chess champion Garry Kasparov was arrested and sentenced to five days in prison after he helped lead a protest against President Vladimir Putin.

Kasparov is one of President Vladimir Putin's harshest critics. He was charged with organizing a demonstration without permission, chanting anti-government slogans, and resisting arrest, court documents said.

There is growing concern in the West over the state of democracy in Russia. Western critics claim that Putin is restricting freedom. Putin accuses the West of meddling in Russian politics.

Kasparov and dozens of other demonstrators were detained after the rally which drew several thousand people.

Kasparov's coalition includes radicals, democrats and Soviet-era dissidents. It has attracted significant media coverage but generated little public support.

OSCE: No Monitors for Russian Election

Vladimir Churov, head of the Russian Central Election Commission is not disappointed with the the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE ODIHR) not to send observers to the upcoming Russian Parliamentary elections.

Churov said that the appropriate invitations had been made in time, and that the decision was most likely political in nature.

Putin Decries Western Meddling in Russian Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked opponents and has accused the West of meddling in Russian politics.

Putin's attack on his opponents came as he seeks to secure a high turnout and strong support for the United Russia (Ednaya Rossiya) party.

Many see this as a way for Putin to retain power after the March 2008 presidential election. Putin’s statements appeared to refer to opposition rallies planned for the coming weekend in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

He did not name specific nations or political parties, but offered a general criticism of his liberal, pro-business and Communist opponents, calling to mind the economic and political uncertainty that plagued Russia before and after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as well the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia that led to the installation of pro-Western regimes.

A clear victory for the United Russia party would give Putin a popular mandate and a loyal parliament to limit his succesor's influence and possibly lay the groundwork for his return to the presidency in 2012 or sooner.

This week’s stadium rally was a mixture of a soccer game and a Soviet-style rally.

Many of Putin’s supporters have demanded constitutional changes that would permit him to stay on as president. He has promised to step down as the constitution currently required, but has also indicated he will seek to retain influence and has not eliminated the possibility of presidential bid in 2012.

United Russia's One Name: Putin

On November 13, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that victory for his United Russia party in upcoming parliamentary elections would give him a moral mandate to lead Russia.

Putin said he intends to convert his current popularity into post-presidential clout after the December 2 legislative poll. This is a clear indication that he intends to remain in politics.

United Russia already holds two-thirds of seats in the State Duma and is forecast to score a crushing victory on December 2. The Communist Party is expected to come a distant second, while liberal parties once popular in the 1990s will probably win no seats at all.

Putin, who assumed power in 2000, is barred by the Russian Constitution from seeking a third consecutive term in March 2 presidential elections.

In what analysts say is probably a Kremlin-coordinated campaign, regional politicians and interest groups have multiplied their appeals begging Putin to stay in office.

Putin said United Russia, created almost overnight in July 2001 as a pro-Kremlin vehicle, was the best party available.

Under the Russian rules of proportional representation, each of the 11 parties contesting the December 2 election presents a list of candidates. The number of deputies from this list that gets seats in parliament depends on the party's share of the total vote.

Parties usually present a list with the leader and two more well-known names, followed by a list of candidates from specific regions. United Russia's federal list has only one name: Putin.

Since the rest of the vote would be divided up into smaller parties -- many of them failing to cross the minimum seven-percent barrier -- such a result would translate into an overwhelming majority of seats in the 450-member State Duma.

The lavishly funded United Russia is the only one of the 11 parties refusing to take part in television debates as part of the election run-up.

The Ukrainian Party of Regions

The Ukrainian Party of Regions political party was created in March 2001.

It originally supported president Leonid Kuchma and joined the pro-government United Ukraine alliance during the parliamentary elections on 30 March 2002. The party's current leader is Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Its power base, both electoral and financial is located primarily in the east and south-east of Ukraine. In the Eastern Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast the party claims to have over 700,000 members.

The party shifted its political ideology to the left and became much more populist in nature before the Ukrainian presidential election, 2004 and, as a result, Yanukovych won over a large part of the Communist party's electorate in eastern Ukraine. The party announced support for making Russian a second official language in Ukraine, a pro-Russian foreign policy, and increased social spending. It also advocates the regionalist ideology, and many members support making Ukraine a federation.

The Party of Regions moved to opposition after its candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, lost the 2004 presidential election. The party leader first claimed an electoral victory but strong allegations of electoral fraud triggered a series of events commonly known as the Orange Revolution. In the re-run of the presidential election ordered by the country's Supreme Court, Viktor Yanukovych lost the election to Viktor Yushchenko.

In the parliamentary elections of 26 March 2006, the party gained 32,12% of votes and 186 (out of 450) seats in the Verkhovna Rada, forming the largest parliamentary group.

In mid-2007, the Ukrainian Republican Party and Labour Ukraine merged into the Party of Regions.

No Tranquility in Georgia

On November 8, 2007, troops occupied the center of the Georgian capital Tbilisi on to enforce a state of emergency imposed after a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters.

Hundreds of Interior Ministry officers in khaki uniforms and armed with hard rubber truncheons patrolled Rustaveli Avenue, the site of the main protests by demonstrators calling for pro-US President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign.

Riot police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons, and Saakashvili announced a 15 day nationwide state of emergency, in which news broadcasts on independent stations were halted and all demonstrations banned.

The American-educated Saakashvili, who is trying to shake off centuries of Russian influence and align the former Soviet republic with the West, has accused Moscow of instigating the protests and expelled three Russian diplomats.

Tensions with Russia have risen as Saakashvili has sought to establish central government control over two separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that have run their own affairs with Russian support since wars in the early 1990s.

In a nearly 30-minute televised address, Saakashvili said he regretted the use of force, but argued that it was necessary to prevent the country from sliding into chaos.

The state of emergency must be approved by parliament within two days.

Many of Saakashvili's opponents support his aims, including closer ties with the United States and Europe.

But there has been increasing disillusionment among critics who say he has not moved fast enough to spread growing wealth. Opponents accuse him of sidestepping the rule of law, creating a system marked by violations of property rights, a muzzled media and political arrests.

Russia, which views most countries of the former Soviet Union as its sphere of influence, has deepened ties with the separatist regions and imposed a trade and transportation blockade on Georgia.

On May 10, 2005, while U.S. President George W. Bush was giving a speech in Tbilisi's Freedom Square, Vladimir Arutinian threw a live hand grenade at Saakashvili and Bush.

It landed in the crowd about 65 feet from the podium after hitting a girl, but it did not detonate. Arutinian was arrested in July of that year, but before his capture he killed one law enforcement agent. He was subsequently convicted of the attempted assassinations of Saakashvili and Bush, and given a life sentence.

Estonia's Electronic Election

On March 4, 2007 Estonia held an election to choose the members of the Riigikogu.

It was the world's first national elections where some of the ballots could be cast in the form of remote electronic voting via the Internet.

A total of 30,275 citizens (3.4% of the voting population) used Internet voting.

Kyrgyzstan Update

Kyrgyzstan’s President Kurmanbek Bakiyev dissolved parliament on October 22, 2007, moving to strengthen his control after voters overwhelmingly approved constitutional changes that his critics called a grab for power.

Bakiyev’s move was part of his latest battle with lawmakers, a dispute that has persisted in the Central Asian country of 5 million since a popular uprising ousted its longtime leader in 2005.

The confrontation has hindered efforts to reduce poverty and social problems in the strategically important country, which hosts a U.S. air base as well as a growing Russian military base.

Parliament passed two sets of constitutional changes last year curtailing the president's powers. But lawmakers reversed them a month later after Bakiyev threatened to dissolve the legislature, returning to the president the authority to form the Cabinet. There were no immediate signs, however, that Bakiyev's moves would bring opposition protesters into the streets, as during previous disputes.

The last major anti-government protest in the capital, Bishkek, took place in April, and it was forcibly dispersed. The president's office called on law enforcement agencies Monday to ensure public calm. But in his address, Bakiyev said that no emergency measures would be put in place. Kyrgyzstan has been troubled by political tension since Askar Akayev was ousted from the presidency by opposition protesters in 2005 and fled to Russia.

It was claims of fraud in the election of the current parliament that sparked the protests that brought Bakiyev to power. Since then, the former opposition forces that were instrumental in Akayev's removal have battled each other for influence. Former parliament Speaker Marat Sultanov said that, under the newly approved constitution, elections should be held around mid-December.

Kyrgyzstan's "Tulip Revolution"

The Tulip Revolution refers to the overthrow of President Askar Akayev and his government in the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan after the parliamentary elections of February 27 and of March 13, 2005.

The revolution sought the end of rule by Akayev and by his family and associates, who in popular opinion had become increasingly corrupt and authoritarian. Following the revolution, Akayev fled the country.

In the early stages of the revolution, the media variously referred to the unrest as the "Pink," "Lemon", "Silk", "Daffodil", or "Sandpaper" Revolution. But it was "Tulip Revolution," a term that Akayev himself used in a speech warning that no such Color Revolution should happen in Kyrgyzstan, which stuck in the end.

Such terms evoked similarities with the Rose Revolution in Georgia and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004, whose names are a tribute to the Czech/Slovak Velvet Revolution.

Kyrgyzstan held a presidential election on 10 July 2005. It saw a landslide victory for acting President Kurmanbek Bakiev, who had been serving as the head of an interim government after the collapse of the Akayev regime.

Russia Will Defend Its Oil

Russian President Vladimir Putin, responding to questions on a TV broadcast on October 18, 2007, continued his recent criticism of the United States.

Putin suggested that the U.S. military campaign in Iraq may have been attempt to seize its oil reserves. He said that resource rich countries such as Russia needed to have strong militaries to defend themselves against those who might try to steal their resources.

He also called for the U.S. to announce an exact date for the departure of troops from Iraq.

With respect to his own future, he said that Russia will have a different president next year. This would appear to lay to rest any notions that he would seek both a third term and constitutional crisis, but it was not clear what role he would play in Russia’s new government.

Russia and President Hillary Clinton

Many Russians are predicting a win by Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2008 U.S. presidential election, and they’re worried.

A concern is that her victory will result in stepped-up criticism of Russia's failures in human rights and democratization, thereby increasing friction. The result will be an increased deterioration in US-Russian relations.

They are bad under Bush, but could be much worse under Hillary Clinton. She may revive the doctrine of her husband, and assume that Russia is to be punished for having lost the Cold War. Another source of trouble will be the increasingly favored status of China. This is due almost entirely to the fact that China serves as a source of cheap labor for low grade consumer goods, with the expectation that the same labor force can eventually be upgraded for the production of more expensive items such as consumer electronics.

Russia could argue that China has human rights issues of its own, and democratization is an utterly foreign concept there. Russia could assert that US policy is being driven by corporate interests, strengthening the position of pro‑Communist factions within Russia.

Another consideration is oil. Russia controls a significant portion of the world's petroleum resources, and the disastrous situation in the Middle East may necessitate a certain level of dependency on Russian oil and gas.

If elected, Senator Hillary Clinton will have two problems with respect to Russia. The first is the foreign policy disaster created by her predecessor, and the second could be biases inherited from her husband. Russia will be undergoing changes, and Clinton must work with things as they are to prevent the development of a significant and dangerous rift between America and Russia.

Putin's Plan To Retain Power?

On October 1, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday he would lead the dominant party's ticket in December parliamentary elections and suggested he could become prime minister, the strongest indication yet that he will seek to retain power after he steps down as president early next year.

The Russian constitution prevents Putin ifrom seeking a third consecutive term in the March presidential election, but has strongly indicated he would seek to keep a hand on Russia's reins.

He agreed to head the United Russia party's candidate list in December, which could open the door for him to become a powerful prime minister, leading in tandem with a weak president.

He said that, first, United Russia would have to win the Dec. 2 elections and a "decent, competent, modern person" must be elected president.

Putin's agreement to top the candidate list of United Russia sent an ecstatic cheer though the crowd at a congress of the party, which contains many top officials and dominates the parliament and politics nationwide. The move will likely ensure that United Russia retains a two-thirds majority in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, enough to change the constitution.

The White House took note of Putin's move and said it was ultimately a matter for the Russian people.

Leading the party's ticket does not mean Putin will take a seat in parliament; prominent politicians and other figures often are given the top spots to attract votes, but stay out of the legislature after elections. The 450 seats in the Duma will be distributed proportionally among parties that receive at least 7 percent of the votes.

The popular Putin has repeatedly promised to step down at the end of his second term in May, as the constitution requires, but has suggested he would maintain significant influence. He offered some initial hints at his strategy last month when he named Viktor Zubkov — a previously obscure figure known mainly for his loyalty — as prime minister.

With no power base of his own, Zubkov would likely play his preordained part in any Putin plan. If he became presiodent and Putin prime minister, Zubkov could be expected to cede specific powers to Putin or step down to allow him to return to the presidency. If he becomes prime minister, Putin would be first in line to replace the president if he is incapacitated.

Putin has amassed authority as president, but as he prepares to step down he has been setting up a system of check and balances that would weaken his successor by putting him at the mercy of rival centers of power. By leading the United Russia party list, Putin instantaneously creates the strongest such center, with himself as its head.

Meanwhile, In Uzbekistan…

Uzbek election commissioner Mirzo-Ulugbek Abdulsalomov announced that the country will hold a presidential election December 23, 2007.

The announcement ended months of speculation over whether an election would actually take place by the end of the year, as required by Uzbek law.

The question hanging over the former Soviet state - whether President Islam Karimov would seek another seven-year term - was left unanswered. Karimov was born in Samarkand, Uzbek SSR, Soviet Union.

He is half-Uzbek, on his father's side, and half-Tajik on his mother's side. He grew up in a Soviet state orphanage. Later he studied engineering and economics in Tashkent.

Karimov’s daughter, Gulnara, not only serves as Uzbekistan’s ambassador to Russia, but also manages the majority of the family’s business interests. The Karimov family holdings include the largest wireless telephone operator in the country, night clubs, and a large cement factory.

Russian Cabinet Changes

Russian President Vladimir Putin made few changes to his cabinet on September 24, 2007.

Possibly the largest change was giving Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin the additional post of deputy prime minister.

The biggest casualty was Economy Minister German Gref (photo), who was one of three ministers who lost their posts. The others were Health and Social Affairs Minister Mikhail Zurabov and Regional Development Minister Vladimir Yakovlev.

Gref was replaced by his own deputy, 44-year-old Elvira Nabiulina. Tatyana Golikova, previously deputy finance minister, was given the health and social affairs portfolio.

First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medevedev -- named by analysts as possible successors to Putin when he steps down in 2008 -- retained their posts, as did deputy prime ministers Sergei Naryshkin and Alexander Zhukov.

Despite earlier speculation to the contrary, Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeev retained his position.

The cabinet changes were made after Putin sacked Mikhail Fradkov and named Zubkov, who headed Russia's fight against money laundering, as prime minister in his place.

As part of the changes, Putin brought Dmitry Kozak, a close ally who had been working in the presidential administration, into the government as the new regional development minister.

Putin kept Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in his post, turning down the resignation he had submitted previously. Serdyukov had asked to leave the government on the grounds that the fact he is Zubkov's son-in-law was a potential conflict of interest.

The Communists Speak Out

On September 22, 2007, Russia's Communist party vowed to re-nationalise "strategic" industries as opponents of President Vladimir Putin on the left and right set out their pre-election stalls.

Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov kicked off the party's annual congress at a farming village outside Moscow with an indictment of Putin's rule and a promise to restore some methods from the Soviet past.

Since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, "wild, bandit capitalism has been established," Zyuganov declared from a podium featuring a statue of the Soviet Union's founder, Vladimir Lenin.

Outlining plans to re-nationalise key industries and reunite Russia with ex-Soviet neighbours Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, Zyuganov said that stability had been achieved for just five percent of the population under a government of "bureaucrats, oligarchs and bandits."

The event was one of two taking place over the weekend ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections and followed the surprise appointment of new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov earlier this month.

The Communist party, which was due to approve candidates for December's election Saturday, has remained a significant grouping, regularly getting its views across in the pro-government media.

A host of theories have emerged about next year's handover, with some suspecting that Putin could remain as the power behind the throne, perhaps becoming leader of the pro-Kremlin United Russian party, or that he will install a weak figurehead so as to return as president later.