Russian Parliamentary Election: Preliminary Results

December 2, 2007: An exit poll showed that President Vladimir Putin's United Russia (Единая Россия: Edinaya Rossiya) party was winning with 61 percent of the vote in today's parliamentary election.

Russia's liberal, pro-Western parties are not expected to obtain the seven percent minimum required for representation in the Duma.

It is likely that pro-Kremlin parties would have enough seats in parliament to change the constitution.

The West's main election monitoring body, the ODIHR, did not monitor the election, claiming visas had not been issued in time, a claim refuted by Russian officials.

Putin Decries Western Meddling in Russian Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked opponents and has accused the West of meddling in Russian politics.

Putin's attack on his opponents came as he seeks to secure a high turnout and strong support for the United Russia (Ednaya Rossiya) party.

Many see this as a way for Putin to retain power after the March 2008 presidential election. Putin’s statements appeared to refer to opposition rallies planned for the coming weekend in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

He did not name specific nations or political parties, but offered a general criticism of his liberal, pro-business and Communist opponents, calling to mind the economic and political uncertainty that plagued Russia before and after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as well the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia that led to the installation of pro-Western regimes.

A clear victory for the United Russia party would give Putin a popular mandate and a loyal parliament to limit his succesor's influence and possibly lay the groundwork for his return to the presidency in 2012 or sooner.

This week’s stadium rally was a mixture of a soccer game and a Soviet-style rally.

Many of Putin’s supporters have demanded constitutional changes that would permit him to stay on as president. He has promised to step down as the constitution currently required, but has also indicated he will seek to retain influence and has not eliminated the possibility of presidential bid in 2012.

No Tranquility in Georgia

On November 8, 2007, troops occupied the center of the Georgian capital Tbilisi on to enforce a state of emergency imposed after a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters.

Hundreds of Interior Ministry officers in khaki uniforms and armed with hard rubber truncheons patrolled Rustaveli Avenue, the site of the main protests by demonstrators calling for pro-US President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign.

Riot police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons, and Saakashvili announced a 15 day nationwide state of emergency, in which news broadcasts on independent stations were halted and all demonstrations banned.

The American-educated Saakashvili, who is trying to shake off centuries of Russian influence and align the former Soviet republic with the West, has accused Moscow of instigating the protests and expelled three Russian diplomats.

Tensions with Russia have risen as Saakashvili has sought to establish central government control over two separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that have run their own affairs with Russian support since wars in the early 1990s.

In a nearly 30-minute televised address, Saakashvili said he regretted the use of force, but argued that it was necessary to prevent the country from sliding into chaos.

The state of emergency must be approved by parliament within two days.

Many of Saakashvili's opponents support his aims, including closer ties with the United States and Europe.

But there has been increasing disillusionment among critics who say he has not moved fast enough to spread growing wealth. Opponents accuse him of sidestepping the rule of law, creating a system marked by violations of property rights, a muzzled media and political arrests.

Russia, which views most countries of the former Soviet Union as its sphere of influence, has deepened ties with the separatist regions and imposed a trade and transportation blockade on Georgia.

On May 10, 2005, while U.S. President George W. Bush was giving a speech in Tbilisi's Freedom Square, Vladimir Arutinian threw a live hand grenade at Saakashvili and Bush.

It landed in the crowd about 65 feet from the podium after hitting a girl, but it did not detonate. Arutinian was arrested in July of that year, but before his capture he killed one law enforcement agent. He was subsequently convicted of the attempted assassinations of Saakashvili and Bush, and given a life sentence.

Oil: Compulsion and Defiance

It is widely recognized that China and India have the potential to develop into economic superpowers in the 21st century. A key component of their growth is oil, which both nations are compelled to import.

This compulsion is not without its geopolitical costs, especially with oil prices at record highs. Iran and Venezuela, for example, can continue to enjoy more protection from outside political pressure as their oil revenues increase and non-oil producing nations find it necessary to come to terms with them.

In Russia, the lower house of Parliament voted unanimously in early November to suspend the country's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. This is yet another of Putin’s shows of defiance to the west. The higher demand for oil will lead to increased reliance by consuming countries like the U.S. and European allies on imports of oil and gas from the Middle East and Russia.

Iraqi Oil, Russian Ambitions and Influence

The Iraqi government has canceled a controversial development contract with the Russian company Lukoil for a vast oil field in Iraq's southern desert, freeing it up for potential international investment in the future.

Iraq’s decision was apparently made based on advice received from American advisors.

Russian authorities have retaliated by threatening to revoke a 2004 deal with creditor nations to forgive $13 billion in Iraqi debt.

The field at issue is West Qurna; its estimated reserves are 11 billion barrels, the equivalent of the worldwide proven oil reserves of Exxon Mobil. Hussain al-Shahristani, the Iraqi oil minister, said in an interview that the field would be opened to new bidders, perhaps as early as next year.

The contract, which had been signed and later canceled by Saddam Hussein’s government, had been in legal limbo since the American invasion. But the Kremlin remained hopeful it could be salvaged until this September, when al-Shahristani traveled to Moscow to inform officials there that the decision to cancel it was final, he said.

The Russian government, newly emboldened in international affairs by its expanding oil wealth, is still backing Lukoil's claim and protesting what it considers selective enforcement of contracts in Iraq.

West Qurna has the potential to produce 1 million barrels of oil a day after four to five years of development, according to both Iraqi oil officials and Lukoil.

Putin Denies Iranian Missile Threat

On October 23, 2007, President Bush announced a missile defense system in based in Europe, but supervised by the United States, is urgently needed to counter an emerging threat of attack by Iran.

Bush's latest warning about Iran's nuclear ambitions came as part of a broad defense of his security policies at the National Defense University and not long after Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a news conference in the Czech Republic that the administration might delay activating the proposed missile defense sites until it is able to quantify the risk posed by Iranian missiles.

Bush's warning about Iran was contradicted by Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov during a visit to Tokyo. Lavrov supposedly told Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura that North Korea poses a threat, but that Iran does not.

Bush spoke somewhat positively of President Vladimir Putin's offer of facilities for this purpose in Azerbaijan and southern Russia. The idea would be to replace the U.S. plans for missiles based in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic.

The proposal has already been presented to the Russians, who strongly oppose having U.S. missile defense bases in Europe but have expressed interest in the proposal Gates mentioned Tuesday, which Gates said has yet to be worked out in detail. At a news conference after meeting Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, Gates said in Prague that the United States would proceed with current plans to build the sites in Europe but possibly wait before putting them in working order. The United States wants to build a missile interceptor base in Poland and a radar site in the Czech Republic, but details have yet to be negotiated.

It is not known what role, if any, Alexandria, VA-based Rannoch would play in the deployment of this system. Some question Rannoch’s overall competence in this area, as the majority of their senior management team have backgrounds in commercial software systems purchased from other companies. Rannoch’s management team has been very active in the Czech Republic, and this activity may be connected to the deployment of this system.

A good deal of the disagreement between Washington and Moscow over missile defense in Europe has centered on the question of when Iran's missile program would reach the stage where it could threaten all of Europe and the United States. The Russians say that is a far-distant prospect; the Americans say it is coming soon.

Gates described a related proposal to the Russians that might mean permitting a Russian presence at U.S. missile defense bases, including at the Polish and Czech sites. He said this was presented to the Russians in the interest of making as transparent as possible to Moscow how the missile defense sites operate.

The Pentagon wants to install 10 interceptor rockets in Poland which, when linked to a proposed tracking radar in the Czech Republic and to other elements of the existing U.S. missile defense system based in the United States, could defend all of Europe against a long-range missile fired from the Middle East.

Missiles on the Moon?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned U.S. officials to reconsider their plan to install missile defenses in eastern Europe. Failure to do so will cause further damage to deteriorating US-Russian relations.

After keeping Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates waiting for nearly thirty minutes, Putin delivered a lengthy monologue in which he also said that Russia may feel compelled to abandon its obligations under a 1987 missile treaty with the United States.

He also seemed to mock the plan, stating that it should be built on the moon.

The Russian government sees the American missile defense plan, which is supposedly a designed to protect against missile attack from Iran, as the first step in an overall plan to weake Russian security.

Rice and Gates appeared taken aback at the firm tone and forcefulness of Putin's remarks, which were made from notes in the presence of American and Russian news media before they began a closed-door meeting around an oval table in an ornate conference room at his country house outside the capital.

On missile defense, Putin was particularly pointed in his remarks, in which he sought to lay out his view of what Rice and Gates should be discussing later Friday with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoli Serdyukov.

"We hope that in the process of such complex and multi-faceted talks you will not be forcing forward your relations with the eastern European countries," the president said. He then made his remark about the possibility of one day putting a missile defense system on the moon.

Shortly before the talks with Putin began, Lavrov strolled into the house's billiards room, where American reporters had gathered, for a cigarette break. He was asked whether he expected any breakthroughs in the talks.

"Breaks, definitely. Through or down, I don't know," he said.

The American plan calls for the construction of 10 missile interceptors in Poland, linked to a missile tracking radar in the Czech Republic. The system will provide some protection in Europe and beyond for long-range missiles launched from Iran, but Russia believes the system is a step toward undermining the deterrent value of its nuclear arsenal. The Russian counterproposal calls for building a system in Azerbaijan, which is much closer to Iran.

Rice told reporters on Thursday on her flight to Moscow that the U.S. would go ahead with the program as planned.

The Kasparov Gambit

Garry Kasparov was born Garri Weinshtain in Baku, Azerbaijan SSR to an Armenian mother and a Jewish father. He first began the serious study of chess after he came across a chess problem set up by his parents and proposed a solution.

His father died when he was seven years old. At the age of twelve, he adopted his mother's Armenian surname, Kasparyan, modifying it to a more Russified version, Kasparov.

Kasparov began to study chess seriously, and developed quickly.

He became world chess champion in 1985, but then broke with the world chess organization, FIDE.

In 2005, Kasparov announced that he would be retiring from serious competitive chess. He cited as the reason a lack of personal goals in the chess world (he commented when winning the Russian championship in 2004 that it had been the last major title he had never won outright) and expressed frustration at the failure to reunify the world championship. Kasparov said he may play in some rapid chess events for fun, but intends to spend more time on his books, including both the My Great Predecessors series and a work on the links between decision-making in chess and in other areas of life, and will continue to involve himself in Russian politics, which he views as "headed down the wrong path."

Kasparov's political involvement started in the 1980s. He joined the CPSU in 1984, and in 1987 was elected to the Central Committee of Komsomol. In 1990, however, he left the party, and in May of that year took part in the creation of the Democratic Party of Russia. In June 1993, Kasparov was involved in the creation of the "Choice of Russia" bloc of parties, and in 1996 he took part in the election campaign of Boris Yeltsin.

In 2001 he voiced his support for the Russian television TV channel NTV. After his retirement from chess in 2005, Kasparov turned to politics and created the United Civil Front, a social movement whose main goal is to "work to preserve electoral democracy in Russia. Kasparov was instrumental in setting up The Other Russia, a coalition including Kasparov's United Civil Front, Eduard Limonov's National Bolshevik Party, Vladimir Ryzhkov's Russian Republican Party and other organizations which oppose the government of Vladimir Putin.

The Other Russia has been boycotted by the leaders of Russia's democratic opposition parties, Yabloko and Union of Right Forces as they are concerned about the inclusion of radical nationalist and left-wing groups in its ranks, such as the National Bolshevik Party and former members of the Rodina party. However, regional branches of Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces have opted to take part in the coalition.

Kasparov says that leaders of these parties are controlled by Kremlin. Kasparov helped organize the Saint Petersburg Dissenters' March on March 3, 2007 and The March of the Dissenters on March 24, 2007, both involving several thousand people rallying against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saint Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko's policies. On April 14, he was briefly arrested by the Moscow police while heading for a demonstration. He was held for some 10 hours, and then fined and released.

Profile: Dmitrii Anatolevich Medvedev

Dmitrii Anatolevich Medvedev, born September 14, 1965 in Leningrad), is a Russian politician and businessman. He was appointed first deputy prime minister of the Russian government on November 14, 2005. Formerly Vladimir Putin's chief of staff, he is also the chairman of Gazprom's board of directors, a post he has held for the second time since 2000.

Medvedev graduated from the Law Department of Leningrad State University in 1987 (together with Ilya Yeliseyev, Anton Ivanov, Nikolay Vinnichenko and Konstantin Chuychenko) and in 1990 got his PhD in private law from the same university. In 1990 he worked in Leningrad Municipal Soviet of People's Deputies. Between 1991 and 1999 he worked as a docent in Saint Petersburg State University. In 1991 - 1996 Medvedev also worked as a legal expert for the Committee for External Relations of the Saint Petersburg Mayor's Office under Vladimir Putin.

In November 1993, Medvedev became the legal affairs director of Ilim Pulp Enterprise, a St. Petersburg-based timber company. In 1998, he was elected a member of the board of directors of the Bratskiy LPK paper mill. He worked for Ilim Pulp until 1999.

In November of 1999 he became one of several St. Petersburgers brought by Vladimir Putin to top government positions in Moscow. In December of the same year he was appointed deputy head of presidential staff.

Dmitrii Medvedev became one of the politicians closest to President Putin and during the 2000 elections when he was head of the presidential election campaign headquarters. From 2000 to 2001, Medvedev was chair of Gazprom's board of directors. He was then deputy chair from 2001 to 2002. In June of 2002, Medvedev became chair of Gazprom board of directors for a second time. In October 2003, he replaced Alexander Voloshin as a presidential chief of staff. In November 2005, he was appointed by President Vladimir Putin as First Deputy Prime Minister, First Deputy Chairman of the Council for Implementation of the Priority National Projects attached to the President of the Russian Federation, and Chairman of the Council's Presidium.

Dmitrii Medvedev is considered as a moderate liberal pragmatic, able administrator and loyalist of Putin. Following his appointment as First Deputy Prime Minister, some political observers still expect him to be nominated as Putin's successor for the 2008 presidential elections, despite Putin’s appointment of Viktor Zubkov as prime minister in September of 2007.