Progress at Bushehr

December 17, 2007: Russia has made its first shipment of nuclear fuel to the Iranian nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr.

Iran contends its plant is strictly for civilian purposes, but the project concerns the United States and contend that the plant could be used to build nuclear weapons.

The American position was weakened earlier this month with the release of a new U.S. intelligence report that concluded Iran had halted its nuclear weapons development program in 2003 and had not resumed it through at least the middle of this year.

Even though Russia has opposed the imposition of further sanctions on Iran, it also repeatedly has urged Tehran to cooperate with efforts to resolve concerns over the nuclear program.

Last week, officials at Atomstroyexport, the Russian contractor for Bushehr, raised the prospect of creating a Russian-Iranian joint venture that would provide greater security at the facility. This could be an indication that Russia wants to ensure that enriched uranium at the plant is not stolen or diverted. Depleted fuel rods also could be reprocessed into plutonium.

Iran: Accusers, Supporters, and Leaders

U.S. officials have accused Iran of many things: Developing nuclear weapons. Sponsoring terrorism. Killing Americans in Iraq. Planning Israel's destruction.

Does the U.S. have evidence?

In the buildup to the Iraq war, the Bush administration made allegations against Saddam Hussein. Polls showed that Americans believed these allegations, which were later shown to be wrong.

The United States and Iran have been enemies since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a time of mullahs returning from exile, demonstrating students, and American hostages.

For almost two decades, Iran pursued a secret nuclear program.

Iran claims its program is for civilian power generation only. The U.S. says it is for a bomb.

Many other countries agree that Iran's actions to date, such as its enrichment of uranium and its continued secrecy suggest it has seeks to develop nuclear weapons. Other nations, including Russia and China, urge Iran to be more open, and call for compromises on all sides.

A new national intelligence estimate, originally due last spring, was delayed by the need to evaluate new information, the U.S. national intelligence director, Mike McConnell, said recently. But most analysts say that new information is mostly just Iran's political developments and recent U.N. findings on enrichment, already public.

Very little is known about Iran would do with a bomb, if it had one.

Most countries develop nuclear weapons as a way to gain regional power and influence, as was the case with India and Pakistan.

The real power in Iran is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's top religious and political authority whose views remain shrouded in mystery. He has backed Ahmadinejad and is deeply conservative.

There are numerous signs Iranians dislike their current government. Iran's young, well‑educated population objects to many aspects of the current authoritarian regime. The country has an inefficient economy, exacerbated by Ahmadinejad's blunders.

Khamenei lacks the stern, spellbinding charisma that bound the first revolutionary leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, so strongly to his people.

Russia and China -v- US and EU Over Iranian Nuclear Program

On November 23, 2007 Iran stated Western nations’ efforts to impose seeking harsher U.N. sanctions against it could halt its steps to clarify nuclear activity to U.N. inspectors.

Earlier in the week, U.N. nuclear watchdog stated that believed that Iran was making good progress towards resolving key objectives by the end of the year, only to be told not enough had been done to secure the trust of the West.

The Western accusation against Iran it is secretly trying to build atomic bombs. Iran's clarifications on centrifuge research were consistent with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) intelligence.

Iran also continued to defy demands by the United Nations Security Council to suspend enrichment work.

The so-called "EU-3 Powers" of Britain, France and Germany told IAEA governors that further delays were not acceptable.

They and the United States said Iran had failed to show full disclosure and suspend enrichment gain a reprieve from further sanctions. Russia and China did not join the Western camp in supporting further Security Council action. Russia, moreover, has referred to Iran’s cooperation so far as having been constructive.

The two key issues involve traces of highly enriched -- or bomb-grade -- uranium that inspectors found at research sites, and intelligence on links between uranium processing, explosives tests, and an apparent design for a missile warhead.

US "Thanksgiving Proposal" to Russia: Missiles, Treaties, and Troops

On the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday, the United States submitted a proposal to Russia for cooperation on missile defense in eastern Europe against a supposed threat from Iran.

The U.S. also submitted a proposal to Russia that would hopefully prevent Russia’s withdrawal from a key European arms control treaty.

Officials on both sides have declined to release copies of the documents. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov are expected to discuss them early next week in advance of Middle Eastern peace talks.

The documents describe U.S. plans to develop a radar system in the Czech Republic and to deploy missile interceptors in Poland, and also address Russia’s plans to suspend participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

The U.S. claims that the missile defense system would counter the threat of Iranian missiles that could be aimed at Europe or U.S. territory. Russia, on the other hand, contends the U.S.-proposed system also could be used against Russian missiles, which would make it a threat to its nuclear deterrence.

A key component of the missile system proposal is a delay in the activation of the U.S. missile interceptors until it can be shown that Iranian ballistic missiles pose a threat to Europe.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the sharing of a Russian-leased early warning radar in Azerbaijan with the United States. The proposal for delaying the activation of the interceptors has apparently been favorably received by Russian negotiators who also insist that the offer include a binding treaty that would detail specific terms for activation. The United States would likely object to such a demand.

The CFE imposes limits on the deployment of tanks, aircraft and heavy conventional weapons across Europe. Negotiators agreed to revise the treaty in 1999, but the United States and other NATO members have not ratified it. The U.S. position is that Russia must fulfill obligations to withdraw forces from Georgia and from Moldova's separatist Trans-Dniester region before the CFE issue can be addressed. Russia insists that there should be no such link.

Iran + Russia + Venezuela = Dissent at OPEC Summit

On November 18, 2007, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have expressed interest in converting their cash reserves into a currency other than the rapidly depreciating U.S. dollar.

The meeting was held in the Saudi capital Riyadh, with heads of states and delegates from 13 of the world's biggest oil-producing nations, was the third full OPEC summit since the organization was created in 1960.

Ahmadinejad's comments at the rare OPEC summit meeting also highlighted the growing challenge that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, faces from Iran and its ally Venezuela within OPEC.

Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation is a significant source of concern to oil produces as it has played a role in the increase in crude prices and the decrease in the value of their dollar reserves.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah had tried make the environmental impact of the oil industry on the environment the topic of the summit, but faced continual interference from both Iran and Venezuela.

Iran and Venezuela proposed trading oil in a basket of currencies to replace the historic link to the dollar, but they had not been able to generate support from enough fellow OPEC members. Many OPEC members, such as Saudi Arabia, are U.S. allies.

Both Iran and Venezuela are currently at odds with the U.S., and their proposal may have political, as well as economic motivations. Iran is in a dispute with Washington over its nuclear program, and Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez is an open critic of U.S. President George Bush. U.S. sanctions on Iran have made it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for the country to do business in dollars.

A day earlier, Saudi Arabia opposed a move by Iran on Friday to have OPEC include concerns over the falling dollar included in the summit's closing statement after the weekend meeting. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister even warned that even talking publicly about the currency's decline could further hurt its value. But by Sunday, it appeared that Saudi Arabia had compromised.

Though the final declaration delivered Sunday did not specifically mention concern over the weak dollar, the organization directed its finance ministers to study the issue. Iran went a step further and said OPEC will form a committee to study the dollar's impact on oil prices and investigate the ramifications of a currency basket.

Algeria's Oil Minister, Chakib Khelil, said he would urge Russia, the second-biggest oil supplier, to join OPEC when he became president of the organization.

Russia attends OPEC meetings as an observer nation.

Khelil will become OPEC president on January 1, 2008.

Fission at the UN?

Iran has answered questions about its past nuclear activities posed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but the IAEA does not believe that Iran is being completely truthful.

The IAEA’s report warns that knowledge about Iran's current nuclear program is decreasing because Iran is currently providing less information than it had previously.

The report is expected to play a crucial role in determining whether the United Nations Security Council will impose more sanctions on Iran.

International powers may, once again, find themselves at an impasse.

The United States is likely to argue that the report validates concerns that Iran is covertly developing a nuclear weapon.

Russia, China and others will almost certainly contend that as long as Iran continues to respond to questions, tougher sanctions are premature.

The Bush administration agreed with other world powers in late September 2007 to hold off on new sanctions while IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei sought Iran's cooperation in clearing up the history of its nuclear program.

Another Move In The Iranian "Nuclear Game"

On November 1, 2007 the United States claimed that both Russia and China had been blocking tough U.N. sanctions against Iran.

China may not have sided with Russia, but it has certainly decided to participate in the Iranian "nuclear game" whose outcome will influence the remainder of the 21st century.

Nicholas Burns, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, said China and Russia had been stalling a new United Nations Security Council resolution since late March.

The five permanent powers on the Security Council (United States, Russia, China, France, Great Britain) plus Germany will meet in London on Friday to weigh the scope for more sanctions.

Russia has argued that further sanctions could push Iran into a corner.

China urged a diplomatic solution to the issue, recognizing it had become difficult.

Iran has defied three Council resolutions, two with modest sanctions attached, since last year demanding it stop enriching uranium. Iran says it wants nuclear-generated electricity, but Western powers suspect a disguised bid to build atom bombs.

Tension over Iran's nuclear activities has helped catapult oil prices to record highs of over $90 a barrels in recent days. Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suggested new bilateral U.S. sanctions would mainly hurt European Union countries doing business with Iran, which has vast oil and gas reserves.

Dancing With Missiles

In a joint declaration dated October 28, 2007, Russia and the United States urged all nations to destroy medium range missiles with nuclear capability.

The statement was released to coincide with the 62nd session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on October 25.

Russia has been pressing the U.S to rewrite what is commonly referred to as the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), by including countries other than ex-Soviet nations and the United States.

The treaty, signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in December 1987, was a milestone in arms control which lead to the destruction of a total of 2,692 missiles.

The joint statement called for the destruction of ground launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

Earlier in the month, Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Russia would find it difficult to stay in the INF unless it was expanded to include other countries' armaments.

His comments were backed up by a warning from Russia's rocket forces commander on Friday that the Kremlin could resume production of missiles if others do not observe the treaty.

Countries such as India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan have commenced the construction of intermediate range missiles. Even though some, if not all, of these nations have nuclear capability, one of them is subject to the constraints of the INF treaty.

Is America Using Iran In A Dangerous Game With Russia?

On October 25, 2007, the Bush administration announced sweeping new sanctions against Iran. These are the harshest since the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in 1979 as part of the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini. America claims that Tehran supports terrorism in the Middle East, exports missiles and is engaging in a nuclear build up.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, joined at a State Department news conference by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, said the moves against Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, an element of its defense ministry and three of its largest banks are designed to punish Tehran for weapons proliferation and alleged support of terrorist organizations in Iraq and the Middle East.

The sanctions will cut off more than 20 Iranian entities, including individuals and companies owned or controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), from the American financial system and will likely have ripple effects throughout the international banking community.

State-owned banks Bank Melli, Bank Mellat and Bank Saderat were named supporters of global terrorist groups for their activities in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East.

Iran's Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics were designated proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology.

The IRGC is the largest component of Iran's military and has influence in business and other spheres. The defense ministry entity is the parent organization for Iran's aerospace and ballistic missile operations.

The Revolutionary Guards organization, formed to safeguard Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, has pushed well beyond its military roots, and now owns car factories and construction firms and operates newspaper groups and oil fields.

Current and former members now hold a growing role across the country's government and economy, sometimes openly and other times in shadows.

The guards have gained a particularly big role in the country's oil and gas industry in recent years, as the national oil company has signed several contracts with a guards-operated construction company. Some have been announced publicly, including a $2 billion deal in 2006 to develop part of the important Pars gas field.

Now numbering about 125,000 members, they report directly to the supreme leader and officially handle internal security. The small Quds Force wing is thought to operate overseas, having helped to create the militant Hezbollah group in 1982 in Lebanon and to arm Bosnian Muslims during the Balkan wars.

The administration accuses the Quds Force of sending fighters and deadly roadside bombs, mortars and rockets to kill American troops in Iraq in recent years — allegations that Iran denies.

These sanctions come in the wake of a strong show of support of Iran by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia and the US are at odds over a system to defend against Iranian missile attacks. The US wants the system based in Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia wants it in Azerbaijan, and does not appear to be as convinced as the US as to why it is needed. Putin has also encouraged oil producing nations such as Iran to bolster their militaries against possible US aggression.

Putin Denies Iranian Missile Threat

On October 23, 2007, President Bush announced a missile defense system in based in Europe, but supervised by the United States, is urgently needed to counter an emerging threat of attack by Iran.

Bush's latest warning about Iran's nuclear ambitions came as part of a broad defense of his security policies at the National Defense University and not long after Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a news conference in the Czech Republic that the administration might delay activating the proposed missile defense sites until it is able to quantify the risk posed by Iranian missiles.

Bush's warning about Iran was contradicted by Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov during a visit to Tokyo. Lavrov supposedly told Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura that North Korea poses a threat, but that Iran does not.

Bush spoke somewhat positively of President Vladimir Putin's offer of facilities for this purpose in Azerbaijan and southern Russia. The idea would be to replace the U.S. plans for missiles based in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic.

The proposal has already been presented to the Russians, who strongly oppose having U.S. missile defense bases in Europe but have expressed interest in the proposal Gates mentioned Tuesday, which Gates said has yet to be worked out in detail. At a news conference after meeting Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, Gates said in Prague that the United States would proceed with current plans to build the sites in Europe but possibly wait before putting them in working order. The United States wants to build a missile interceptor base in Poland and a radar site in the Czech Republic, but details have yet to be negotiated.

It is not known what role, if any, Alexandria, VA-based Rannoch would play in the deployment of this system. Some question Rannoch’s overall competence in this area, as the majority of their senior management team have backgrounds in commercial software systems purchased from other companies. Rannoch’s management team has been very active in the Czech Republic, and this activity may be connected to the deployment of this system.

A good deal of the disagreement between Washington and Moscow over missile defense in Europe has centered on the question of when Iran's missile program would reach the stage where it could threaten all of Europe and the United States. The Russians say that is a far-distant prospect; the Americans say it is coming soon.

Gates described a related proposal to the Russians that might mean permitting a Russian presence at U.S. missile defense bases, including at the Polish and Czech sites. He said this was presented to the Russians in the interest of making as transparent as possible to Moscow how the missile defense sites operate.

The Pentagon wants to install 10 interceptor rockets in Poland which, when linked to a proposed tracking radar in the Czech Republic and to other elements of the existing U.S. missile defense system based in the United States, could defend all of Europe against a long-range missile fired from the Middle East.

Russia Will Defend Its Oil

Russian President Vladimir Putin, responding to questions on a TV broadcast on October 18, 2007, continued his recent criticism of the United States.

Putin suggested that the U.S. military campaign in Iraq may have been attempt to seize its oil reserves. He said that resource rich countries such as Russia needed to have strong militaries to defend themselves against those who might try to steal their resources.

He also called for the U.S. to announce an exact date for the departure of troops from Iraq.

With respect to his own future, he said that Russia will have a different president next year. This would appear to lay to rest any notions that he would seek both a third term and constitutional crisis, but it was not clear what role he would play in Russia’s new government.

Warnings from the Caspian Summit

On October 16, 2007, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and implicitly warned the U.S. not to use a former Soviet republic to stage an attack on Iran.

At a summit of the five nations that border the inland Caspian Sea (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan), Putin said none of the nations' territory should be used by any outside countries for use of military force against any nation in the region. It was am obvious reference to long-standing rumors that the U.S. has planned to use Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic, as a staging ground for any possible military action against Iran.

Putin, whose trip to Tehran is the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, also warned that energy pipeline projects crossing the Caspian could only be implemented if all five nations that border the Caspian support them. The legal status of the Caspian — believed to contain the world's third-largest energy reserves — has been uncertain since the 1991 Soviet collapse, leading to tension and conflicting claims to seabed oil deposits. Iran, which shared the Caspian's resources with the Soviet Union, insists that each coastal nation receive an equal portion of the seabed. Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan want the division based on the length of each nation's shoreline, giving Iran a smaller share.

Putin's visit took place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran's nuclear program. Putin's trip was thrown into doubt when the Kremlin said Sunday that he had been informed by Russian intelligence services that suicide attackers might try to kill him in Tehran, but he ignored the warning.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini dismissed reports about the purported assassination plot as disinformation spread by adversaries hoping to damage the good relations between Russia and Iran.

Putin has warned the U.S. and other nations against trying to coerce Iran into reining in its nuclear program and insists peaceful dialogue is the only way to deal with Iranian defiance of a U.N. Security Council demand that it suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran's rejection of the council's demand and its previous clandestine atomic work has fed suspicions in the U.S. and other countries that Tehran is working to enrich uranium to a purity usable in nuclear weapons. Iran insists it is only wants less enriched uranium to fuel nuclear reactors that would generate electricity. Putin's visit to Tehran is being closely watched for any possible shifts in Russia's carefully hedged stance in the nuclear standoff.

Even though Russia has shielded Tehran from a U.S. push for a third round of U.N. sanctions, Iran has voiced annoyance about Moscow's delays in building a nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr under a $1 billion contract.

Moscow also has ignored Iranian demands to ship fuel for the plant, saying it would be delivered only six months before the Bushehr plant goes on line. The launch date has been delayed indefinitely amid the payment dispute. Any sign by Putin that Russia could quickly complete the power plant would embolden Iran and further cloud Russia's relations with the West.

What Happened In Tajikistan?

Tajikistan held presidential elections on November 6, 2006. Emomali Sharifovich Rahmonov, the incumbent, and a member of the dominant People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan, was re-elected. Not without controversy, the constitutional provisions that would prevent him from seeking further terms in office have been removed.

In early 2007 various Russian news sources reported that Rahmonov announced that he had changed his last name to Rahmon, dropping the Russian ending -ov, and that he urges other Tajiks to follow his example and return to their cultural and national roots.

Starting on March 20, 2007, official web sites of Tajikistan started using the surname Rahmon.

Rahmon is a Sunni Muslim and has performed the hajj when he went to Mecca on March 1997. He has called for closer ties with other Muslim nations in the region, notably the Persian speaking nations of Iran and Afghanistan.

What If Gazprom Becomes A Russian National Asset?

Gazprom is the largest Russian company and the biggest extractor of natural gas in the world.

With sales of US$ 31 billion in 2004, it accounts for about 93% of Russian natural gas production and with reserves of 28,800 km3, it controls 16% of the world's gas reserves. After acquisition of the oil company Sibneft, Gazprom, with 119 billion barrels of reserves, ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, with 263 billion barrels, and Iran, with 133 billion barrels, as the world's biggest owner of oil and oil equivalent in natural gas.

By the end of 2004 Gazprom was the sole gas supplier to at least Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, and provided 97 percent of Bulgaria's gas, 89 percent of Hungary's, 86 percent of Poland's, nearly three-quarters of the Czech Republic's, 67 percent of Turkey's, 65 percent of Austria's, about 40 percent of Romania's, 36 percent of Germany's, 27 percent of Italy's, and 25 percent of France's. The European Union gets about 25% of its gas supplies from this company.

On July 4, 2007 the Russian State Duma passed a bill giving Gazprom and Transneft the authority to create their own security forces with greater powers than other private security firms. Gennady Gudkov, a deputy in the State Duma who opposed the bill, raised concerns by calling it a “Pandora’s box... This law envisages the creation of corporate armies. If we pass this law, we will all become servants of Gazprom and Transneft.” If Communist Party proposals for renationallization of certain assets are realized, Gudkov’s concern may be part of a larger issue as the newly formed security forces would have to be re-integrated with existing Russian security forces.

In June 2007, TNK-BP, a subsidiary of BP Plc agreed to sell its stake in Kovykta field in Siberia to Gazprom after the Russian authorities questioned BP's right to export the gas to markets outside Russia. On June 23, 2007, the governments of Russia and Italy signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on a joint venture between Gazprom and Eni SpA to construct a 558-mile (900 km) long gas pipeline to carry 1.05 Tcf (30 billion cubic meters) of gas per year from Russia to Europe.

The South Stream pipeline would extend under the Black Sea to Bulgaria with a south fork extending to Italy and a north fork to Hungary. Following the alleged violation of previous agreements and the failure of negotiations, on August 1, 2007 Gazprom announced that it would cut gas supplies to Belarus by 45% from August 3 over a $456 million debt. Talks are continuing and Belarus has asked for more time to pay. Although the revived dispute is not expected to hit supplies to Europe, the European Commission is said to view the situation “very seriously.”