News from Georgia, Ossetia, Abkhazia

Go to: http://ossetia-abkhazia.blogspot.com/ for the latest news from Georgia, Ossetia, and Abkhazia. You will read reports straight from the region, translated by people there who will tell you what is really going on!Galina and Medea

Independence for Kosovo?

The debate over independence for Kosovo is likely to contribute to the return of the Cold War in Europe. Separating Kosovo from Serbia is certain to renew disputes between Russia and the West over issues including missile defense and NATO membership for the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine.

Kosovo is sacred to Serbs, who call it the cradle of their statehood and religion. The province is also special to the Kremlin, for reasons beyond the roots Russia shares with Slavic, Orthodox Christian Serbia.

To many, Kosovo is a symbol of Russia's weakness in the post-Soviet era. Despite its fury over the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia, Moscow recognized a peace deal that put the mostly ethnic Albanian province under the control of the U.N. and the Western alliance.

Putin has built part of his popularity by restoring Russian pride, working to regain global influence and demonstrating increasing assertiveness toward the West.

An independence declaration could come as early as this week, and Moscow says it has developed a secret plan for responding to it. Meanwhile, Russians are warning that Western recognition will set a dangerous precedent, legitimizing independence claims from separatists across Europe: Scots, Basques, Turkish Cypriots, and others . A report on a government-supported English-language Russian satellite TV channel even threw Vermont secessionists into the mix!

More seriously, Moscow has implied that it could hit back by recognizing the independence claims of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: two provinces with Russian support in Georgia, whose pro-Western government plays a key role in the struggle for influence pitting Russia against the U.S. and European Union.

Such a move coulkd mean a war with Georgia, further deterioration of relations with the West, and a boost for various separatists inside Russia. In the short run, its response will probably be limited to steps such as blocking U.N. recognition of Kosovo, while portraying itself as a protector of international law and the United States as a reckless global bully.

Putin seems less interested in Serbia as a potential military ally than as an outpost of Russia's growing European energy empire. Kremlin support on Kosovo has already helped it land deals for a gas pipeline and control of Serbia's state oil company, furthering its efforts to increase Europe's dependence on Russia for energy supplies and distribution.

Opposition to Georgian Election Results

TBILISI, Georgia, January 13, 2007: Tens of thousands of opposition protesters in rallied against presidential poll winner Mikhail Saakashvili on Sunday alleging vote fraud.

Opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze called for a second round of elections. Gachechiladze came second in the January 5 vote to the incumbent Saakashvili, who was the outright winner in the first round with 53.47 percent, according to final results issued by the Central Elections Commission earlier on Sunday.

The opposition has accused the authorities of rigging the vote in favour of Saakashvili, a pro-Western reformer who led a popular revolt in 2003 but whose popularity has waned because of continued high levels of poverty.

Salome Zurabishvili, another opposition leader and a former foreign minister, called on foreign leaders to boycott Saakashvili's inauguration ceremony. Opposition leaders billed the rally as a show of force against Saakashvili, who was first elected with a sweeping majority in January 2004 in this former Soviet republic.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the main election monitoring group, said that despite some irregularities, the election had largely met democratic standards. The Central Election Commission said the courts were considering a number of complaints regarding the election, and that so far more than 33,000 votes had been declared invalid due to irregularities.

The presidential election was called a year early in response to violent unrest in November, which dented Saakashvili's image as a democratic reformer in this strategic corner of the former Soviet Union. US-backed Saakashvili now has a new five-year mandate to pursue radical reforms to transform Georgia's economy. He is also wants Georgia to join NATO and the European Union.

A flamboyant and multilingual politician, Saakashvili has won plaudits for pulling Georgia out of years of economic chaos and political instability. But, while the opposition backs his pro-Western course, it accuses him of authoritarian tendencies and forgetting impoverished Georgians who have been left behind in free-market reforms. Addressing those complaints, Saakashvili told reporters on Saturday that he aims to eliminate poverty. He added that he wanted to improve relations with neighboring Russia.

Angered by Tbilisi's overtures to the West and its NATO ambitions, Moscow has imposed economic sanctions on Georgia. It also supports armed rebels controlling the Georgian separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Putin Decries Western Meddling in Russian Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked opponents and has accused the West of meddling in Russian politics.

Putin's attack on his opponents came as he seeks to secure a high turnout and strong support for the United Russia (Ednaya Rossiya) party.

Many see this as a way for Putin to retain power after the March 2008 presidential election. Putin’s statements appeared to refer to opposition rallies planned for the coming weekend in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

He did not name specific nations or political parties, but offered a general criticism of his liberal, pro-business and Communist opponents, calling to mind the economic and political uncertainty that plagued Russia before and after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as well the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia that led to the installation of pro-Western regimes.

A clear victory for the United Russia party would give Putin a popular mandate and a loyal parliament to limit his succesor's influence and possibly lay the groundwork for his return to the presidency in 2012 or sooner.

This week’s stadium rally was a mixture of a soccer game and a Soviet-style rally.

Many of Putin’s supporters have demanded constitutional changes that would permit him to stay on as president. He has promised to step down as the constitution currently required, but has also indicated he will seek to retain influence and has not eliminated the possibility of presidential bid in 2012.

No Tranquility in Georgia

On November 8, 2007, troops occupied the center of the Georgian capital Tbilisi on to enforce a state of emergency imposed after a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters.

Hundreds of Interior Ministry officers in khaki uniforms and armed with hard rubber truncheons patrolled Rustaveli Avenue, the site of the main protests by demonstrators calling for pro-US President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign.

Riot police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons, and Saakashvili announced a 15 day nationwide state of emergency, in which news broadcasts on independent stations were halted and all demonstrations banned.

The American-educated Saakashvili, who is trying to shake off centuries of Russian influence and align the former Soviet republic with the West, has accused Moscow of instigating the protests and expelled three Russian diplomats.

Tensions with Russia have risen as Saakashvili has sought to establish central government control over two separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that have run their own affairs with Russian support since wars in the early 1990s.

In a nearly 30-minute televised address, Saakashvili said he regretted the use of force, but argued that it was necessary to prevent the country from sliding into chaos.

The state of emergency must be approved by parliament within two days.

Many of Saakashvili's opponents support his aims, including closer ties with the United States and Europe.

But there has been increasing disillusionment among critics who say he has not moved fast enough to spread growing wealth. Opponents accuse him of sidestepping the rule of law, creating a system marked by violations of property rights, a muzzled media and political arrests.

Russia, which views most countries of the former Soviet Union as its sphere of influence, has deepened ties with the separatist regions and imposed a trade and transportation blockade on Georgia.

On May 10, 2005, while U.S. President George W. Bush was giving a speech in Tbilisi's Freedom Square, Vladimir Arutinian threw a live hand grenade at Saakashvili and Bush.

It landed in the crowd about 65 feet from the podium after hitting a girl, but it did not detonate. Arutinian was arrested in July of that year, but before his capture he killed one law enforcement agent. He was subsequently convicted of the attempted assassinations of Saakashvili and Bush, and given a life sentence.