US "Thanksgiving Proposal" to Russia: Missiles, Treaties, and Troops

On the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday, the United States submitted a proposal to Russia for cooperation on missile defense in eastern Europe against a supposed threat from Iran.

The U.S. also submitted a proposal to Russia that would hopefully prevent Russia’s withdrawal from a key European arms control treaty.

Officials on both sides have declined to release copies of the documents. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov are expected to discuss them early next week in advance of Middle Eastern peace talks.

The documents describe U.S. plans to develop a radar system in the Czech Republic and to deploy missile interceptors in Poland, and also address Russia’s plans to suspend participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

The U.S. claims that the missile defense system would counter the threat of Iranian missiles that could be aimed at Europe or U.S. territory. Russia, on the other hand, contends the U.S.-proposed system also could be used against Russian missiles, which would make it a threat to its nuclear deterrence.

A key component of the missile system proposal is a delay in the activation of the U.S. missile interceptors until it can be shown that Iranian ballistic missiles pose a threat to Europe.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the sharing of a Russian-leased early warning radar in Azerbaijan with the United States. The proposal for delaying the activation of the interceptors has apparently been favorably received by Russian negotiators who also insist that the offer include a binding treaty that would detail specific terms for activation. The United States would likely object to such a demand.

The CFE imposes limits on the deployment of tanks, aircraft and heavy conventional weapons across Europe. Negotiators agreed to revise the treaty in 1999, but the United States and other NATO members have not ratified it. The U.S. position is that Russia must fulfill obligations to withdraw forces from Georgia and from Moldova's separatist Trans-Dniester region before the CFE issue can be addressed. Russia insists that there should be no such link.

Dancing With Missiles

In a joint declaration dated October 28, 2007, Russia and the United States urged all nations to destroy medium range missiles with nuclear capability.

The statement was released to coincide with the 62nd session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on October 25.

Russia has been pressing the U.S to rewrite what is commonly referred to as the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), by including countries other than ex-Soviet nations and the United States.

The treaty, signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in December 1987, was a milestone in arms control which lead to the destruction of a total of 2,692 missiles.

The joint statement called for the destruction of ground launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

Earlier in the month, Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Russia would find it difficult to stay in the INF unless it was expanded to include other countries' armaments.

His comments were backed up by a warning from Russia's rocket forces commander on Friday that the Kremlin could resume production of missiles if others do not observe the treaty.

Countries such as India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan have commenced the construction of intermediate range missiles. Even though some, if not all, of these nations have nuclear capability, one of them is subject to the constraints of the INF treaty.

Is America Using Iran In A Dangerous Game With Russia?

On October 25, 2007, the Bush administration announced sweeping new sanctions against Iran. These are the harshest since the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in 1979 as part of the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini. America claims that Tehran supports terrorism in the Middle East, exports missiles and is engaging in a nuclear build up.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, joined at a State Department news conference by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, said the moves against Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, an element of its defense ministry and three of its largest banks are designed to punish Tehran for weapons proliferation and alleged support of terrorist organizations in Iraq and the Middle East.

The sanctions will cut off more than 20 Iranian entities, including individuals and companies owned or controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), from the American financial system and will likely have ripple effects throughout the international banking community.

State-owned banks Bank Melli, Bank Mellat and Bank Saderat were named supporters of global terrorist groups for their activities in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East.

Iran's Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics were designated proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology.

The IRGC is the largest component of Iran's military and has influence in business and other spheres. The defense ministry entity is the parent organization for Iran's aerospace and ballistic missile operations.

The Revolutionary Guards organization, formed to safeguard Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, has pushed well beyond its military roots, and now owns car factories and construction firms and operates newspaper groups and oil fields.

Current and former members now hold a growing role across the country's government and economy, sometimes openly and other times in shadows.

The guards have gained a particularly big role in the country's oil and gas industry in recent years, as the national oil company has signed several contracts with a guards-operated construction company. Some have been announced publicly, including a $2 billion deal in 2006 to develop part of the important Pars gas field.

Now numbering about 125,000 members, they report directly to the supreme leader and officially handle internal security. The small Quds Force wing is thought to operate overseas, having helped to create the militant Hezbollah group in 1982 in Lebanon and to arm Bosnian Muslims during the Balkan wars.

The administration accuses the Quds Force of sending fighters and deadly roadside bombs, mortars and rockets to kill American troops in Iraq in recent years — allegations that Iran denies.

These sanctions come in the wake of a strong show of support of Iran by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia and the US are at odds over a system to defend against Iranian missile attacks. The US wants the system based in Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia wants it in Azerbaijan, and does not appear to be as convinced as the US as to why it is needed. Putin has also encouraged oil producing nations such as Iran to bolster their militaries against possible US aggression.

Putin Denies Iranian Missile Threat

On October 23, 2007, President Bush announced a missile defense system in based in Europe, but supervised by the United States, is urgently needed to counter an emerging threat of attack by Iran.

Bush's latest warning about Iran's nuclear ambitions came as part of a broad defense of his security policies at the National Defense University and not long after Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a news conference in the Czech Republic that the administration might delay activating the proposed missile defense sites until it is able to quantify the risk posed by Iranian missiles.

Bush's warning about Iran was contradicted by Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov during a visit to Tokyo. Lavrov supposedly told Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura that North Korea poses a threat, but that Iran does not.

Bush spoke somewhat positively of President Vladimir Putin's offer of facilities for this purpose in Azerbaijan and southern Russia. The idea would be to replace the U.S. plans for missiles based in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic.

The proposal has already been presented to the Russians, who strongly oppose having U.S. missile defense bases in Europe but have expressed interest in the proposal Gates mentioned Tuesday, which Gates said has yet to be worked out in detail. At a news conference after meeting Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, Gates said in Prague that the United States would proceed with current plans to build the sites in Europe but possibly wait before putting them in working order. The United States wants to build a missile interceptor base in Poland and a radar site in the Czech Republic, but details have yet to be negotiated.

It is not known what role, if any, Alexandria, VA-based Rannoch would play in the deployment of this system. Some question Rannoch’s overall competence in this area, as the majority of their senior management team have backgrounds in commercial software systems purchased from other companies. Rannoch’s management team has been very active in the Czech Republic, and this activity may be connected to the deployment of this system.

A good deal of the disagreement between Washington and Moscow over missile defense in Europe has centered on the question of when Iran's missile program would reach the stage where it could threaten all of Europe and the United States. The Russians say that is a far-distant prospect; the Americans say it is coming soon.

Gates described a related proposal to the Russians that might mean permitting a Russian presence at U.S. missile defense bases, including at the Polish and Czech sites. He said this was presented to the Russians in the interest of making as transparent as possible to Moscow how the missile defense sites operate.

The Pentagon wants to install 10 interceptor rockets in Poland which, when linked to a proposed tracking radar in the Czech Republic and to other elements of the existing U.S. missile defense system based in the United States, could defend all of Europe against a long-range missile fired from the Middle East.

Missiles on the Moon?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned U.S. officials to reconsider their plan to install missile defenses in eastern Europe. Failure to do so will cause further damage to deteriorating US-Russian relations.

After keeping Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates waiting for nearly thirty minutes, Putin delivered a lengthy monologue in which he also said that Russia may feel compelled to abandon its obligations under a 1987 missile treaty with the United States.

He also seemed to mock the plan, stating that it should be built on the moon.

The Russian government sees the American missile defense plan, which is supposedly a designed to protect against missile attack from Iran, as the first step in an overall plan to weake Russian security.

Rice and Gates appeared taken aback at the firm tone and forcefulness of Putin's remarks, which were made from notes in the presence of American and Russian news media before they began a closed-door meeting around an oval table in an ornate conference room at his country house outside the capital.

On missile defense, Putin was particularly pointed in his remarks, in which he sought to lay out his view of what Rice and Gates should be discussing later Friday with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoli Serdyukov.

"We hope that in the process of such complex and multi-faceted talks you will not be forcing forward your relations with the eastern European countries," the president said. He then made his remark about the possibility of one day putting a missile defense system on the moon.

Shortly before the talks with Putin began, Lavrov strolled into the house's billiards room, where American reporters had gathered, for a cigarette break. He was asked whether he expected any breakthroughs in the talks.

"Breaks, definitely. Through or down, I don't know," he said.

The American plan calls for the construction of 10 missile interceptors in Poland, linked to a missile tracking radar in the Czech Republic. The system will provide some protection in Europe and beyond for long-range missiles launched from Iran, but Russia believes the system is a step toward undermining the deterrent value of its nuclear arsenal. The Russian counterproposal calls for building a system in Azerbaijan, which is much closer to Iran.

Rice told reporters on Thursday on her flight to Moscow that the U.S. would go ahead with the program as planned.