Russian Parliamentary Election: Preliminary Results

December 2, 2007: An exit poll showed that President Vladimir Putin's United Russia (Единая Россия: Edinaya Rossiya) party was winning with 61 percent of the vote in today's parliamentary election.

Russia's liberal, pro-Western parties are not expected to obtain the seven percent minimum required for representation in the Duma.

It is likely that pro-Kremlin parties would have enough seats in parliament to change the constitution.

The West's main election monitoring body, the ODIHR, did not monitor the election, claiming visas had not been issued in time, a claim refuted by Russian officials.

The Kasparov Gambit

Garry Kasparov was born Garri Weinshtain in Baku, Azerbaijan SSR to an Armenian mother and a Jewish father. He first began the serious study of chess after he came across a chess problem set up by his parents and proposed a solution.

His father died when he was seven years old. At the age of twelve, he adopted his mother's Armenian surname, Kasparyan, modifying it to a more Russified version, Kasparov.

Kasparov began to study chess seriously, and developed quickly.

He became world chess champion in 1985, but then broke with the world chess organization, FIDE.

In 2005, Kasparov announced that he would be retiring from serious competitive chess. He cited as the reason a lack of personal goals in the chess world (he commented when winning the Russian championship in 2004 that it had been the last major title he had never won outright) and expressed frustration at the failure to reunify the world championship. Kasparov said he may play in some rapid chess events for fun, but intends to spend more time on his books, including both the My Great Predecessors series and a work on the links between decision-making in chess and in other areas of life, and will continue to involve himself in Russian politics, which he views as "headed down the wrong path."

Kasparov's political involvement started in the 1980s. He joined the CPSU in 1984, and in 1987 was elected to the Central Committee of Komsomol. In 1990, however, he left the party, and in May of that year took part in the creation of the Democratic Party of Russia. In June 1993, Kasparov was involved in the creation of the "Choice of Russia" bloc of parties, and in 1996 he took part in the election campaign of Boris Yeltsin.

In 2001 he voiced his support for the Russian television TV channel NTV. After his retirement from chess in 2005, Kasparov turned to politics and created the United Civil Front, a social movement whose main goal is to "work to preserve electoral democracy in Russia. Kasparov was instrumental in setting up The Other Russia, a coalition including Kasparov's United Civil Front, Eduard Limonov's National Bolshevik Party, Vladimir Ryzhkov's Russian Republican Party and other organizations which oppose the government of Vladimir Putin.

The Other Russia has been boycotted by the leaders of Russia's democratic opposition parties, Yabloko and Union of Right Forces as they are concerned about the inclusion of radical nationalist and left-wing groups in its ranks, such as the National Bolshevik Party and former members of the Rodina party. However, regional branches of Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces have opted to take part in the coalition.

Kasparov says that leaders of these parties are controlled by Kremlin. Kasparov helped organize the Saint Petersburg Dissenters' March on March 3, 2007 and The March of the Dissenters on March 24, 2007, both involving several thousand people rallying against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saint Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko's policies. On April 14, he was briefly arrested by the Moscow police while heading for a demonstration. He was held for some 10 hours, and then fined and released.

What If Gazprom Becomes A Russian National Asset?

Gazprom is the largest Russian company and the biggest extractor of natural gas in the world.

With sales of US$ 31 billion in 2004, it accounts for about 93% of Russian natural gas production and with reserves of 28,800 km3, it controls 16% of the world's gas reserves. After acquisition of the oil company Sibneft, Gazprom, with 119 billion barrels of reserves, ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, with 263 billion barrels, and Iran, with 133 billion barrels, as the world's biggest owner of oil and oil equivalent in natural gas.

By the end of 2004 Gazprom was the sole gas supplier to at least Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, and provided 97 percent of Bulgaria's gas, 89 percent of Hungary's, 86 percent of Poland's, nearly three-quarters of the Czech Republic's, 67 percent of Turkey's, 65 percent of Austria's, about 40 percent of Romania's, 36 percent of Germany's, 27 percent of Italy's, and 25 percent of France's. The European Union gets about 25% of its gas supplies from this company.

On July 4, 2007 the Russian State Duma passed a bill giving Gazprom and Transneft the authority to create their own security forces with greater powers than other private security firms. Gennady Gudkov, a deputy in the State Duma who opposed the bill, raised concerns by calling it a “Pandora’s box... This law envisages the creation of corporate armies. If we pass this law, we will all become servants of Gazprom and Transneft.” If Communist Party proposals for renationallization of certain assets are realized, Gudkov’s concern may be part of a larger issue as the newly formed security forces would have to be re-integrated with existing Russian security forces.

In June 2007, TNK-BP, a subsidiary of BP Plc agreed to sell its stake in Kovykta field in Siberia to Gazprom after the Russian authorities questioned BP's right to export the gas to markets outside Russia. On June 23, 2007, the governments of Russia and Italy signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on a joint venture between Gazprom and Eni SpA to construct a 558-mile (900 km) long gas pipeline to carry 1.05 Tcf (30 billion cubic meters) of gas per year from Russia to Europe.

The South Stream pipeline would extend under the Black Sea to Bulgaria with a south fork extending to Italy and a north fork to Hungary. Following the alleged violation of previous agreements and the failure of negotiations, on August 1, 2007 Gazprom announced that it would cut gas supplies to Belarus by 45% from August 3 over a $456 million debt. Talks are continuing and Belarus has asked for more time to pay. Although the revived dispute is not expected to hit supplies to Europe, the European Commission is said to view the situation “very seriously.”

Russian Cabinet Changes

Russian President Vladimir Putin made few changes to his cabinet on September 24, 2007.

Possibly the largest change was giving Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin the additional post of deputy prime minister.

The biggest casualty was Economy Minister German Gref (photo), who was one of three ministers who lost their posts. The others were Health and Social Affairs Minister Mikhail Zurabov and Regional Development Minister Vladimir Yakovlev.

Gref was replaced by his own deputy, 44-year-old Elvira Nabiulina. Tatyana Golikova, previously deputy finance minister, was given the health and social affairs portfolio.

First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medevedev -- named by analysts as possible successors to Putin when he steps down in 2008 -- retained their posts, as did deputy prime ministers Sergei Naryshkin and Alexander Zhukov.

Despite earlier speculation to the contrary, Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeev retained his position.

The cabinet changes were made after Putin sacked Mikhail Fradkov and named Zubkov, who headed Russia's fight against money laundering, as prime minister in his place.

As part of the changes, Putin brought Dmitry Kozak, a close ally who had been working in the presidential administration, into the government as the new regional development minister.

Putin kept Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in his post, turning down the resignation he had submitted previously. Serdyukov had asked to leave the government on the grounds that the fact he is Zubkov's son-in-law was a potential conflict of interest.

The Communists Speak Out

On September 22, 2007, Russia's Communist party vowed to re-nationalise "strategic" industries as opponents of President Vladimir Putin on the left and right set out their pre-election stalls.

Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov kicked off the party's annual congress at a farming village outside Moscow with an indictment of Putin's rule and a promise to restore some methods from the Soviet past.

Since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, "wild, bandit capitalism has been established," Zyuganov declared from a podium featuring a statue of the Soviet Union's founder, Vladimir Lenin.

Outlining plans to re-nationalise key industries and reunite Russia with ex-Soviet neighbours Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, Zyuganov said that stability had been achieved for just five percent of the population under a government of "bureaucrats, oligarchs and bandits."

The event was one of two taking place over the weekend ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections and followed the surprise appointment of new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov earlier this month.

The Communist party, which was due to approve candidates for December's election Saturday, has remained a significant grouping, regularly getting its views across in the pro-government media.

A host of theories have emerged about next year's handover, with some suspecting that Putin could remain as the power behind the throne, perhaps becoming leader of the pro-Kremlin United Russian party, or that he will install a weak figurehead so as to return as president later.

Change is Inevitable!

On September 12, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin named Viktor Zubkov (see photograph) as the new prime minister. Zubkov has headed Russia's fight against money laundering, and, like Putin, has a background with the KGB and FSB.